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- Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
- New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Cincinnati Reds Vs. Philadelphia Phillies:
Justin Dunn vs. Aaron Nola
The finale of this inter-division series kicks off tonight as two teams going in opposite directions on the season face off yet again. The Phillies have won the first three games of this series and look to finish of the sweep of the lowly Reds.
The Phillies will send their Ace in Aaron Nola to the mound tonight, he has an ERA of 3.25 and an xERA of 2.71. He has not let his team down this year in that #1 spot with those numbers. Surprisingly enough though he has struggled at home this year, which is where he will be today, as he has a 4.54 ERA in Philly compared to a 2.13 ERA on the road.
He will be facing a Reds team that is familiar with him and has had success. The current Reds Roster has a .571 batting average against Nola. The underlying numbers don’t look good for Nola either as he has a .686 wOBA against this team where .300 tends to be the average offensive figure.
Backing up Nola in the Phillies bullpen has been a lackluster group over the past month. In the past 30 days the Phillies bullpen has a combined 3.71 ERA which is good for 14th in baseball, very pedestrian.
The money line bet for the favored Phillies is massive at -345, so we will avoid that today. The Best Bet for this game will be the team total of the Cincinnati Reds at 2.5. They have gone over this run total in 5 of their last 6 games and with their history vs Nola, this number is just too low. Let’s take advantage and hammer the over on this team total.
CIN TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5, -120.
Colorado Rockies Vs. New York Mets:
Ryan Feltner vs. Jacob Degrom
A new four-game series starts today between these two teams on opposite ends of the NL standings. So far apart as a matter of fact that this game has the LARGEST spread difference of any game so far this year. The Mets are a -430 favorite over the Rockies as they have their former Cy Young winner on the mound against the last-place Rockies.
The Rockies will throw starting pitcher Ryan Feltner to the wolves today against the red hot Mets offense in hopes of keeping them at bay. On the season Feltner has an ERA of 5.88 and an xERA of 5.60. In the month of August thus far in 19.2 IP, he has a 6.41 ERA as he has allowed 14 ER in those innings. Backing up Feltner in the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies is not much help at all. In the past 30 days, the Rockies bullpen as a unit has the WORST ERA in the league with a 6.17 ERA.
He will be taking on a Mets’ offense that is top 3 in all of baseball over the past month. They are 3rd in the MLB against RHP, which Feltner is, in terms of team wOBA with a .360. The Mets are also 3rd in the league overall in the past month offensively with a 128 wRC+ (league average is 100).
Again we are going to focus on one team’s offense against a poor pitching team. The Mets team total is set at 4.5 today which is typically a very reasonable number. But, this Mets team has gone over that total in 4 of their last 5 and averaging 6 runs per game and that is not against the poor pitching of Feltner and the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Take the Mets to run away with this game and clear their team total of 4.5 handily today against the Rockies.
NYM TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5, -130.
New York Yankees Vs. Oakland Athletics:
Jamison Taillon vs. James Kaprielian
A new series starts tonight in Oakland for the New York Yankees who are 5-9 in their last 14 games and looking to turn the 2nd half of the season around. They will be taking on the Oakland A’s who surprisingly have been playing much better ball as of late compared to the beginning of the season.
To combat the usually formidable Yankee offense the A’s will send James Kaprielian to the bump. On the year he has a 4.29 ERA and a 4.62 xERA, but as of late he has been much stronger than those numbers indicate. In the month of July in 28 innings he had a 1.93 ERA and in August so far he has a 3.48 ERA in 20.2 innings. He has not allowed over 3 ER in a start since June 15th. In his experience against this Yankee roster, he has faced them in 48 plate appearances and allowed just a .222 BA with a xBA of just .195. He has fared very well against this Yankees team in the past.
On the other side is Jamieson Taillon of the Yankees to take the mound with his 4.00 ERA and 4.17 xERA. In the month of August thus far in 23.2 IP he has a 5.32 ERA and has given up at least 3 runs in all of his August starts. Yes, he will be facing the A’s offense which off-hand is a great advantage, but in the past month, they have started to turn things around offensively. The A’s offense ranks BETTER than the Yankees both against RHP, which each team is facing today, and overall offensively.
This will be the riskiest bet of the day but these two teams match up very evenly. Offensively, on the mound, and in the bullpen. Give the advantage to the A’s being at home and take them being a heavy underdog as a plus. While they could win this game outright we are going to take them on the Run Line PLUS 1.5 runs to keep it close with the Yankees tonight at a plus price.
OAK RUN LINE +1.5, +110.
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