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- Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
- Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Daily Best Bet:
Noah Syndergaard vs. Pablo Lopez
We cashed on this series yesterday so why not keep rolling with what’s working. The Phillies are still pushing to solidify their playoff spot in the National League while the Marlins are sleep walking to the finish line.
The Philly offense will be facing off against Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez tonight. On the season Lopez has a 4.04 ERA and a 4.08 xERA. He will be pitching at home in Miami tonight, and while starting there he doesn’t fare as well as he does on the road. At home this year Lopez has a 5.01 ERA. In his last three overall starts he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 13.2 innings pitched. The bullpen backing him up hasn’t done well as of late either, as they are the 26th best bullpen in baseball in the past month with a 5.10 ERA.
Tonight he will be facing off against a Philly offense that has been on fire as of late. They rank second in all of baseball offensively with a .349 wOBA over the past month, and are just as good against right handers like Lopez. Against righties specifically they have a wOBA of .347, also good for 2nd best in baseball.
The Phillies starting pitcher tonight, Noah Syndergaard, has not been reliable lately. So, we will focus this bet today on the outstanding Philadelphia offense vs the below average pitching staff of the Marlins. We will take the over on the Phillies team total at 3.5 and even if Lopez turns it around today, the bullpen has shown no promise in doing the same.
PHI TT O 3.5, -145.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros Daily Best Bet:
James Kaprielian vs Lance Mccullers Jr.
A new divisional series kicks off today between two teams at the opposite ends of the standings. The Astros are coasting into the playoffs with one of the top records in the American League while the A’s have the 2nd worst record and are far from considering a playoff run.
For the A’s today on the mound they will send James Kaprielian. On the year Kap has a 4.79 ERA and a 4.77 xERA. In his last five starts overall he has a 6.56 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP and has a record of 0-4 in those games. Kap doesn’t tend to last too long in games and likely wont go past 5 again today. After him to pitch will be the Oakland bullpen who ranks 28th in all of baseball over the past month with an ERA of 5.21. This pitching unit will face off against an Astros offense that is top 10 in baseball over the past month with a team wOBA of .321.
On the other side for the division leading Astros they will send Lance Mccullers Jr. to the bump. So far this year in just five starts since coming off of a long stint on the injured list Mccullers has a 2.20 ERA and a 4.02 xERA. He will be pitching at home tonight in Houston where he has thrived so far this year. In 18 innings at home he has a 1.00 ERA. He also doesn’t last long in games due to coming off of the IL recently but backing him up is the leagues 2nd best bullpen unit. In the past month the Houston bullpen has a 2.36 ERA.
One of these two teams has something to fight for and is clearly the superior team, the other can hope to play spoiler but they don’t have much left to push for. Take the Astros to win this game handily as their offense and pitching matchups are superior to Oaklands. We will take them on the run line to cut the juice down from -312 to a -145 and they just need to win by more than one.
HOU RL, -1.5, -145.
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Daily Best Bet:
Daniel Lynch vs Dylan Bundy
In a similar situation to our first matchup, we have one team here still fighting to keep their playoff spot in the wild card while the other is far out of the playoff race and only has the goal of playing spoiler for their division foe.
For the Royals today they will start Daniel Lynch on the mound. On the season thus far he carries a 5.14 ERA and an xERA of 5.07. In his last three starts he has totaled 18.2 innings pitched and allowed 17 earned runs. Today he will be taking on a Minnesota team that he is familiar with, as he has faced them four times already this year. In those outings he has thrown 20 innings pitched and allowed nine earned runs.
On the other side the Twins will send Dylan Bundy to the bump with his 4.68 ERA and 4.02 xERA. He has been superior to those numbers though while pitching at home in Minnesota which is where he will be today. While starting at home Bundy has a 3.81 ERA compared to a 5.28 ERA on the road. Over the last full month of August he pitched 24 innings with just a 2.63 ERA. Bundy didn’t do well his last start against the Guardians but prior to that he had not allowed more than two earned runs in a game since July.
The focus of the end of the betting year in baseball is to pick on teams that have nothing left to fight for while playing a team on the fringe of making the playoffs. One team is motivated tonight and that team has the better starting pitcher and offense. Take the Twins to win on the run line by more than one run and win this game handily.
MIN RL, -1.5, +115.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
There are only six baseball games tonight so here are my football plays for Thursday Night Football!
KC -4, -110.
1H TOTAL UNDER 27.5,
Kelce TOTAL Rec Yards OVER 76.5, -125.
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