After a rough last week, we find ourselves at a record of 9-9 on the year. Let’s look to bounce back with a big Week Four of the College Football season!
Boise St @ UTEP (Game Total Under 45.5 -110)
UTEP finds themselves in Week Four, with a 1-3 record going into this week’s matchup. They have losses that include North Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Right now, the team is averaging a measly 14 points per game. Last year, UTEP was a feel-good story team that came out of nowhere to produce some big wins and a lot of exciting plays. This year they don’t have any offensive fire power at all. With only averaging 332.5 yards per game, I don’t know if UTEP will be able to put points on the board against a decent defense.
Boise St. hasn’t been fantastic on offense either. The Broncos are averaging a whopping 25.7 points per game. Boise St is also a team who loves to run the ball. They had 113 rushes to their 57 completed passes. I think Boise St keeps the ball on the ground and chews a lot of clock. I think this game is going to be a rock fight. The under should be the sharp play.
#5 Clemson @ #21 Wake Forest (Clemson -7 -115)
Clemson had a rocky season last year but has come back better than ever. Head Coach Dabo Swinney has his team coming into Week Four ranked fifth in the country. It also feels like Clemson has a QB in waiting that can win a National Championship. That being said, I think Clemson has Wake Forest’s number. In the last 10 matchups, Clemson is 10-0 and has never won by less than 14 points. This season, Clemson is allowing just 69 rushing yards per game. To be fair, they haven’t had that great matchups to begin the season. I think Clemson being bigger in the trenches is what is going to make a difference in this game.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, is no slouch on offense. Wake Forest is actually averaging more points per game than Clemson by just a hair. If Wake Forest wants to win this game, they need their running backs to come up big and chew some clock. The biggest thing Wake Forest can do to help themselves is limit how often Clemson touches the ball. I think Wake will struggle with keeping that awesome Clemson defensive line in check and ultimately lose by at least a touchdown.
Duke @ Kansas (Duke +7.5 -110 & Game Total Under 65.5 -110)
This is an “I don’t believe in Kansas” game. Kansas has been on a roll this year, already hitting the over of their projected win total of 2.5. Their offense has looked incredible, putting up 56, 55, and 48 points throughout their first three games. Including some decent teams like West Virginia and Houston, Kansas has looked like they might be turning a new leaf from laughingstock to respectable program… I’m not buying it. Kansas still doesn’t have a ton of talent really anywhere on the team and I think they will get exposed by a Mike Elko-lead defense.
Duke isn’t known for their football team, but they do run a decent program with a few notable draft picks in recent years. Going into Week Four, Duke finds themselves sitting at 3-0 on the season and they are going into their first real test against the Jayhawks. Head Coach Mike Elko is known for having defenses that travel well into opposing stadiums.
Duke is allowing just 14.3 points per game this season and I think they can scheme well against the Jayhawks. This is a classic overreaction game for Kansas and I think Duke has a real chance to win this game. I think both teams struggle to get going and don’t cover that big of a number.
TCU @ SMU (TCU -1.5 -110)
TCU QB Max Duggan leads the FBS in total QBR heading into Week Four. The TCU offense put up 38 and 59 points. The Horned Frogs also have four running backs averaging more than five yards per carry. TCU seems to have figured it out on offense and they are coming off a bye week, which gives them extra time to prepare for their matchup against SMU. For SMU to win this game, they will have to figure out how to stop this well-balanced offense.
SMU started off the season 2-0, then lost in a very winnable game against Maryland. In a game where Maryland had 15 penalties, they still couldn’t get a win. TCU has a good offense and a well-rounded defense. I think TCU shows they are the bigger, stronger team and runs right through SMU.
UCLA @ Colorado (UCLA -21.5 -110)
This explanation will be short and sweet. Colorado is a dumpster fire and quite possibly might be the worst team in all of college football. Chip Kelly loves to put up big numbers against bad teams. This isn’t a pick because I love UCLA, this pick is because Colorado might be one of the worst teams in all of FBS.
Vanderbilt @ #2 Alabama (Vandy +40.5 -110)
Vanderbilt is no longer the worst team in college football. At one point, they were a laughingstock. Now, they seem to have turned a corner, not saying they have a chance in the SEC, but they are now not just a cakewalk win. So far, coming into week four, Vandy is 3-1. The Vandy offense has been putting up 436 yards and 42 points per game. I think this game is more about Alabama not scoring 60 points. I think Vandy can put up 10-20 points and cover this big spread.
#7 USC @ Oregon St (USC -5.5 -110)
Both of these teams came into this game with a 3-0 record. This is one of the more interesting lines I have seen in the college football season. The line opened at 5.5 and, in some sportsbooks, it made it all the way to seven points. So, this bet depends on what you can get it at. USC has been good to us this season, covering 3/3 games. Caleb Williams will look to continue his Heisman campaign and will look to dominate his week four matchup.
Oregon St, on the other hand, is not to be messed with this season. A secret gold mine so far, Oregon St. is also 3-0 ATS. I think USC should be a top-five-ranked team. They are loaded with talent and Oregon St. is exactly who they always are. Don’t overthink this one and take the team with more talent and a better head coach. USC will show people why they should be in the conversation for the best team in all of college football.
Hopefully we have more wins in Week Four than we did last week. Sitting at 9-9 right now, this week’s best bets will carry us to a winning record!
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