The New York Giants (7-2) are currently three-point favorites over the Detroit Lions (3-6) for their upcoming game this Sunday at MetLife Stadium. However, the line has come down from 3.5 points as the week has unfolded.
New York defeated the Houston Texans, 24-16, at home this past Sunday. The Lions also won, a thrilling 31-30 upset of the Bears in Chicago. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in their previous five games in November.
New York has used its excellent clock management and run game to win games this season, and now it welcomes the offensive-minded Lions. Which side will prevail?
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Sunday, November 20, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Giants -4, 46 O/U
The Giant’s pass defense has been pretty average all season. They haven’t exactly faced a ton of great quarterbacks this season, but even when they have, they’ve done an okay job. Overall, they rank tenth in passer rating allowed (87.5), t-13th in yards per attempt (6.9), and 17th in EPA allowed per drop-back.
Their secondary is young and suspect—especially with safety Xavier McKinney on IR—but they make up for it with an aggressive and successful pass rush. They get interior pressure from their incredible defensive tackle duo of Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, who have combined for 6.5 sacks and 53 strains (per PFF). Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux is also starting to turn the corner, tallying at least three pressures in four of his last six games.
If that weren’t enough, the Giants also love to send the blitz, especially on third down. As a result, they have the highest blitz percentage in the league.
But despite all that, New York still ranks 22nd in pass rush grade, 15th in pass rush win rate, and 13th in pressure percentage. So they’re an above-average unit but not quite elite yet.
Player to watch: Lawrence. As I pointed out in my scouting report, Lawrence is putting up Aaron Donald-like disruption numbers. Lions center Frank Ragnow is dealing with a foot injury, and while I suspect he’ll still play, it could limit his effectiveness on Sunday.
The Detroit Lion’s passing offense consistently puts up a lot of yardages, but their efficiency numbers have been inconsistent all year—which makes sense considering Jared Goff’s overall inconsistency. He has stretches where he looks like a legit franchise quarterback and has bouts of turnovers that hurt the team.
The good news for Goff is that for the first time since Week 3, he could have his entire cast of characters around him. DJ Chark is trending towards coming off injured reserve, and Josh Reynolds could be in play after practicing on Thursday. In addition, with D’Andre Swift slowly improving and increasing his role, Detroit’s passing offense should be the healthiest it has been since early in the season when they were averaging 35 points a game.
Overall, the Lions rank eighth in passer rating (93.7), t-eighth in yards per attempt (7.6), and 13th in expected points added per drop-back.
Pass protection has been mostly good, but the advanced statistics are mixed. They have the 10th lowest pressure percentage (18.7%), but rank 27th in PFF’s pass-blocking grade and 19th in pass-block win rate (57%).
New York-Detroit Injury Report
Lions vs. Giants Spread Analysis
The Lions are coming off back-to-back wins after edging the Bears 31-30 at Soldier Field last week. Unfortunately, it’s been another rough season for the 3-6 Lions, who have shown improvement on offense but have struggled immensely on the other side of the ball.
Despite promising play from rookies Aidan Hutchinson and Malcolm Rodriguez, Detroit’s defense is last in the league in EPA/Play. Conversely, new York’s stop unit ranks a respectable 19th in EPA/Play and can get stops when it needs to, ranking second in the league in opponent third-down conversion rate.
The Giants are fresh off a 24-16 victory against the Texans and have gone 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games.
They have a one-dimensional offense, but they run the ball effectively with Barkley and do an excellent job of controlling the clock, ranking fourth in the league in time of possession. The Lions are just 28th in a time of possession, which could prove crucial in this contest.
Lions vs. Giants Over/Under Analysis
With windy weather and cold temperatures on Sunday, we could see both offenses lean on their ground games. That said, both defenses struggle to make tackles in the second level and in the open field, so even with run-heavy attacks, we could see these teams put up some points.
Except for a pair of ugly offensive performances against the Patriots and Cowboys (two of the best defensive teams in the league), the Lions have done an excellent job moving the chains this season.
Unfortunately, their defense surrenders a league-worst 29.3 points per game. That competent offense and atrocious defense have resulted in over-cashing in eight of Detroit’s last 11 games.
However, the Giants like to chew up the clock and play at a slower pace. That has resulted in the G-Men averaging 20.8 ppg and allowing just 19.2. That has resulted in them going 7-1-1 to the Under this season.
With Detroit being one of the best Over bets in the league and the Giants being one of the best Under bets, I’ll steer clear of playing the total in this one — especially with the unpredictable weather.
Lions Vs. Giants Betting Trend To Know
The Under is 7-0 in the Giants’ last seven home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
The Lions have arguably the worst defense in the NFL, as they have allowed teams to score 27-plus points against them in seven of their nine contests. The Lions have won two straight games, but the Giants are amidst a resurgent season, so watch out, Detroit…New York is aiming for the “W.” And that’s….”The Lex Of It”
New York Giants 34 Detroit Lions 17