Picture this: the underdog, bruised and battered, stands at the edge of the ring, staring down the reigning champ. A win on Sunday doesn’t just raise the 49ers’ record—it redeems years of heartbreak and serves as a breakthrough.
The San Francisco 49ers enter this week with a 3-3 record despite having a +32 point differential. Even with their shaky start, the Niners sit atop the NFC West and have a chance to go above .500 after this weekend, but San Francisco must overcome an opponent that has haunted them for half a decade, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
In the Kyle Shanahan era, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 against the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs. The four losses consist of two regular-season games and two Super Bowls. Kansas City has soundly defeated San Francisco in their regular-season matchups, outscoring the 49ers 82-50.
In both Super Bowl losses for the Niners under Shanahan, they had much different teams. The first consisted of Jimmy Garoppolo, a rookie Deebo Samuel, DeForest Buckner, Richard Sherman, Raheem Mostert, etc. Last year’s Super Bowl was a new look with Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, etc. Although both teams had many personnel differences, the Niners blew 10-point leads in both Super Bowls, falling to Patrick Mahomes.
The Super Bowl window for the 49ers is still open, so long as they are healthy. That window feels like it is shrinking each year the team comes up short. San Francisco is currently in what can be seen as a make-or-break season since they will need to address Brock Purdy’s contract soon, earning a $985k base salary while playing at a very high level with an extension looming. There are also key players like Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Deommodore Lenoir, and Charvarius Ward, who have expiring contracts.
With injuries piling up, San Francisco faces a steeper uphill battle than last season. This Sunday, they will have to face off against the one team they haven’t figured out, and they will have to do it without Christian McCaffrey, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, and Javon Hargrave. If they defeat Mahomes this shorthandedly, everything for the Niners will change.
A victory on Sunday would mean a lot more than a 4-3 record. It would mean that the 49ers rip the monkey off their back by taking down the team that crushed their hopes and dreams twice in the past five years. San Francisco defeating Kansas City on Sunday would feel like when Bruce Wayne climbed out of the pit in The Dark Knight Rises. We would have to take them seriously again as the team to beat in the NFC. The Chiefs enter this matchup with a 5-0 record, so the Niners have a chance to prove to themselves and the league that this Goliath of a franchise bleeds.
The key to watch in this game is how each team’s offense performs in the red zone. Both offenses have struggled in this area so far this season, with the 49ers ranking 25th in red zone efficiency (44.44%) and the Chiefs ranking 29th (38.89%). This is a big dropoff from last season for both teams, but it is a more significant plummet for the 49ers, who were 1st the previous season (68%), and the Chiefs were 19th (51.25%). Red zone offense has been the biggest problem for San Francisco and the culprit of practically all three of their losses. Fixing their biggest issue against their biggest nemesis would be massive. These teams also rank closely in red zone defense (49ers-13th, Chiefs-9th), so the red zone will be a fun fight.
The 49ers have been a team that lets bad to mediocre teams hang around this season. They have struggled to put teams away, similar to how they have struggled to put the Chiefs away in their Super Bowl matchups. This isn’t just another game. It’s a chance for Shanahan’s squad to turn the tide. To break the curse of Mahomes.
Can San Francisco execute well and tighten up its biggest holes against the boogeyman of February, who wears the number 15? We will have to wait and see on Sunday. If the 49ers prevail, it’s more than just a win. It’s a statement to the rest of the league: the 49ers are still here, and they’re not leaving quietly. The only question that remains is whether we are ready to believe.
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