Tommy John Surgery was the prognosis announced by Yankees camp spokespeople last week concerning the immediate future of ace pitcher Gerrit Cole. Those three words are enough to send waves of emotion on the verge of devastation among Yankee faithful and fans of the game in general. Like him or not, Gerrit Cole is the bonafide ace of baseball’s most iconic franchise. Beyond that, he is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation.
The recovery time for a procedure such as this, the first Tommy John surgery of Cole’s career, is likely to be upwards of 14 months. That means if he were to have the surgery in the coming days, he is looking at a return of June 2026 as a best-case scenario. Cole exercised his opt-out clause this past off-season, and that strategy proved to be a sound financial decision for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner.
The Yankees responded to Cole’s negotiation by rewarding him with another year on his existing deal, bringing his contract’s Average Annual Value (AAV) to $36 million over the next five years. Shockingly, the Yankees seemed blindsided by Cole’s first discomfort and elbow pain and then the announcement of Tommy John. Exactly one year ago, Cole was sidelined with elbow issues that had him on the IL to start the season. In short, despite Gerrit Cole being well…Gerrit Cole, an impeccably formed artist on the mound and faithful student of the game, the writing had been on the wall for the Yankees for some time.
At 34, Gerrit Cole started to have significant arm concerns. This has been the way for most if not all, pitchers of his elite caliber. Pitchers who routinely throw fastballs that touch 100mph will break down and tear. The Yankees must have known this to some degree. All teams now appear willing to take that risk while signing these pitchers to long-term deals. It can’t even be categorized as risk-taking anymore.
Teams who sign these elite, high-velocity, and high-inning pitchers for long-term deals must know they will lose them for at least one or two seasons. The exceptions to this are rare. Here are some examples of teams who have rolled the dice by signing a starting pitcher to multi-year deals, only to lose them for at least one season due to Tommy John Surgery.
Tommy John & Baseball’s Best
The TWP phenom has been sidelined twice with serious arm trouble. The first came late in his rookie season of 2018. Ohtani’s Tommy John Surgery that year kept him off the mound for 2019. His offensive numbers appeared to suffer slightly as he recovered from the procedure in 2019. He was still productive, but nowhere near the impactful, offensive force, he is now with the Dodgers.
Just before he appeared to be hitting his otherworldly potential with the bat, his arm troubles surfaced once again. A torn UCL ligament prevented him from pitching last season, and now, the Dodgers will have to decide how best to utilize the talents of arguably the most outstanding player the game has ever seen. They are committed long-term with a titanic deferred payment-style deal that covers Shohei until retirement or until his right arm falls off, whichever comes first.
The Texas Rangers signed DeGrom after he had been limited to no more than 15 starts in any of the past 4 seasons, dating back to his 2019 Cy Young campaign with the Mets. The ace righthander has proved highly effective whenever he takes the mound. The fact was, however, that he had been plagued with arm soreness and had already had one complete Tommy John surgery in 2010, shortly after being drafted.
It is genuinely remarkable that he returned to become one of the top starting pitchers of this century. Like the Yankees, the Rangers must have known that when signing DeGrom to a five-year deal with potential extensions, they were bound to lose him to injury at some point.
DeGrom’s career in Texas barely got off the ground. He made three Jacob DeGrom-like starts before being sidelined for 2024 with his second Tommy John. The Rangers are hoping that their patience and their investment will both pay off in 2025.
The lefty will be tasked and labeled as the Yankees ace for 2025. With the loss of Cole, the starting rotation is one more injury away from total implosion. Granted, their bullpen has been upgraded considerably, but with the 2023 arm concerns of Carlos Rodon and Fried’s stint on the IL last year with Atlanta, the Yankees hope everything goes perfectly with their current roster.
The Yankees signed the former Braves ace and World Series MVP to an eight-year, $218 million contract this past offseason, knowing his recent injury history and Fried’s 2014 Tommy John surgery. It seems now, that with Fried being 31, the Yankees are willing to forfeit one, two, or even three of those contractual years.
The Yankees will throw money away in exchange for a couple of All-Star seasons from Fried. For example, hypothetically, 4 out of Fried’s 8 years in the Bronx may be All-Star caliber, with the other half being injury-plagued. A claim can absolutely be made using today’s standards, that this example would be a positive return on the Yankees investment.
From this fan’s perspective, it seems that for contract negotiations with free-agent starting pitchers, Tommy John surgery is often the elephant in the room. Larger market teams are willing to take the risk and wait during the long recovery process for their ace pitcher to eventually return to proper form.
It has become the cost of doing business in many or most of these massive long-term deals. Unfortunately, for the smaller market teams, the risk of signing some of these big-name pitchers, knowing they are bound to lose them for up to a season or much longer, is too impactful to enter into.
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