Since entering the league in 2022, Breece Hall has been a consensus top-five dynasty running back, but with only one season finishing as an RB1. After this season, can fantasy managers trust him as a top-tier starter or should they be looking to ship him for a major haul? Breece Hall holds an insane amount of upside but with an almost equal amount of risk. Does his risk get outweighed by the reward? Let’s take a look.
Breece Hall is one of the few young bell-cow backs in the league. He is wrapping up year three in the NFL, and is only 23 years old. He’ll turn 24 in May, a few months before the 2025 NFL season kicks off. Young players like Hall are great to have in dynasty. Their careers are just getting started and presumably have a good number of years till they decide to hang the cleats up. As long as Hall stays healthy, he should have a long career in the NFL.
Breece Hall possess an awesome blend of size and athleticism. At the 2022 NFL Combine, Hall ran a 4.39 40 yard dash at 5’11” and 217 lbs. To put that into perspective, Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey ran a 4.39 40, weighing in at 186 lbs at the combine this past February. As big as Hall is, he should not be running that fast. His athleticism is unreal.
Breece Hall burst onto the scene in 2022, rushing for 463 yards and four touchdowns in only seven games as a rookie. He looked like he was going to be the league’s next great running back. Unfortunately, in week seven of his remarkable rookie campaign, Hall tore his ACL.
Watching Hall run in 2023, you’d never know he tore his ACL a season before. He ran for 994 yards and five touchdowns, but made his money through the air, with 76 receptions for 591 yards and four more touchdowns. He would finish as the RB2 in 2023, behind only Christian McCaffery. It appeared that the final form of Breece Hall arrived.
The Jets’ offense has been atrocious for a long time. It has been almost ten years since they’ve had a top-15 offense in both scoring and total yards. Since coming to the league in 2022, Hall has been a part of an offense ranked close to dead last in the previous three seasons. It may seem obvious, but it is hard to rely on a star player in a bad offense. They have fewer chances to score, and not much time on the field. Because of this, Hall is currently 30th in the league in red zone carries.
Now, there are plenty of stars who have been successful on bad offenses (Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry in Tennessee, etc.), but being a part of a good offense gives those special players an even better chance at making an impact in game.
Saquon Barkley had some up-and-down seasons for New York, and decided to leave free agency this past offseason. He went to Philadelphia, an offensive powerhouse, who helped him amass over 2,000 rushing yards. Breece Hall is one of the most talented running backs in the league, but the offense around him isn’t helping him become the player we all know he can be. Being in New York isn’t benefiting him.
Being a part of a bad offense leads to a major concern for Breece Hall: inconsistency. You never know if the Jets will be in a “shootout” or if they’re down quickly and have to abandon the run game. The bad offense and nature of how teams throw the ball downfield when losing, leads to Hall becoming more of a boom/bust running back than a true fantasy RB1. He’ll put up some monster games and help you win some weeks, and then the next week he’ll give you 50 yards on 13 carries. He is hard to predict, which is not what you want in your “franchise” fantasy running back.
You don’t realize how significant Hall’s inconsistent play is until you compare him to other highly sought-after dynasty running backs in the same “tier.”
| 2024 Weekly Fantasy Finishes | RB1 | RB2 | Outside top 24 |
| Breece Hall* | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Bijan Robinson | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 6 | 1 |
*missed week 14 due to injury
Hall not having the type of consistency as Robinson and Gibbs isn’t based on talent alone. Both Robinson and Gibbs were pieces of a good offense. Robinson and the Falcons were 16th in points scored and 10th in total yards, and Gibbs and the Lions were first in points scored and second in total yards. What about Hall and the Jets? They were 24th in both total yards and points scored.
Talented running backs in successful offenses matter. Out of the top 12 running backs this season, only four of them came from teams who were closer to the bottom in points scored and total yards. (per sleeper.com)
In a vacuum, Hall is a sell. His dynasty value is so high because he is young and explosive, but the Jets are still the Jets. They cannot seem to put together a good team, even when they add good players. His being a part of such a cursed franchise really limits the player he can be there. Even with the relatively poor play this season, Hall can still be sold for a haul. Buyers will chase the potential, but as long as he’s part of a putrid offense, Hall’s production will be hard to predict on a week-to-week basis.
Breece Hall may be the Kyle Pitts of fantasy running backs. He does exciting things one week and then will be a non-factor the next. It is tempting to buy in on the player that Breece Hall can be, but his horrible situation is hard to ignore. I’m not saying Hall is a bad running back by any means, but to keep treating him as a top-five fantasy running back year after year may be a little too presumptuous.
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