Kirk Cousins was livid when the Atlanta Falcons took Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr with the eighth pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. He had good reason to be. The team did not tell him their plans, and the selection said to him that he would not make it to the end of his newly signed four-year, $180 million contract. His suspicions have been confirmed, as ESPN is reporting that the team is planning to release Cousins before his $10 million roster bonus is due on March 17th.
Cousins has a no-trade clause in his contract, and it’s unlikely, given how the Penix situation played out, that he will help the team by agreeing to a trade. He will have $65 million in dead cap after the season, so if the team designates the release a post-June 1st cut, he will count $32.5 million against the cap in 2025, and again in 2026. The Falcons will pay him $27.5 million next year, making him a potential bargain for teams in the quarterback market (similar to Russell Wilson this past off-season).
Kirk Cousins was supposed to help Atlanta compete for a playoff spot in a weak division in 2025. Instead, the team is 7-7 on the year, a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with three games remaining. The team could still make a run, and potentially get in, but it won’t be with Cousins running the offense. The team has named Penix as the starter “going forward”, and it was clear they didn’t mean just this season.
Cousins did have some highs this season, like his 509-yard, 4-touchdown outing against the Bucs on October 3rd. He also had games that were not so great, like his 0-touchdown and 4-interception game against the Chargers on December 1st. The team clearly feels they are better served by starting a rookie. Even if Penix doesn’t provide the consistency that Cousins lacked, he does provide excitement and entertainment for fans of the team.
The rookie quarterback class of 2024 has shown great promise. Top pick Caleb Williams has had highs and lows, but has shown tremendous potential when the Bears offensive line can block for him. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are locked in a tight rookie of the year race, and Drake Maye got a late start but has Patriots fans excited for their future. Penis has not had a chance to see the field, and he may be the best pure passer of the 2024 class.
Atlanta has no shortage of weapons for Penix. Drake London is a 6’4 superstar, and Kyle Pitts is the most athletically gifted tight end the league has ever seen. Darnell Mooney is a bargain, who has 57 catches this season for 873 yards and 5 touchdowns. Penix won’t be asked to air it out though, as he may have the best two-headed running back tandem in the league with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The recipe for success is there, and it’s easy to follow.
The team should, and likely will implement an offense that is run-heavy, and let’s Penix throw off of play action. It would be surprising to see him in the shotgun for more than half the snaps. A heavy does of Robinson and Allgeier should allow Penix to to attack the middle of the field. The Giants and Panthers may be bad teams, but they don’t give up a lot of passing yards. The matchup with the Commanders will be billed as two rookies versus each other, but it’s really two equally matched teams versus each other.
The likeliest outcome for Penix in the last three games of the year would be around 200 yards against the Giants, 225 against the Commanders, and 250 against the Panthers. Something like 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions should be viewed as a success. The future is bright for the team and the young signal-caller, but uncertain for the former quarterback of the Falcons. The only thing Cousins knows for sure, is that Atlanta will be one of two teams signing his checks in 2025.
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