The world of sports data is constantly changing, with more information available to teams, athletes, and even the common fan that can be used to predict performance trends. NASCAR is no different, and the author of this post has built several analytical metrics to help give race fans a more advanced view of the action on the track—because, as any driver can attest, auto racing isn’t always a fair sport.
The following numbers—explained in full detail here—are designed to measure driver performance in various aspects of each race, many of which come from NASCAR’s Loop Data. They are ranked by True Driver Rating (TDR), a variation on NASCAR’s Driver Rating, which incorporates factors such as speed, track position, passing, luck, and equipment strength to best estimate how well each driver performed during an event.
For a race that came down to a fuel mileage gamble, Las Vegas was surprisingly fair. The top four finishers in the race scored the top four TDR ratings, though with the order slightly adjusted. Christopher Bell was the dominant driver of the day, leading 155 of 267 laps, and despite having to pit for fuel late, he nearly caught Joey Logano for the win. Bell’s score of 304.04 was the third-highest posted by any Cup Series driver in 2024, trailing only Kyle Larson in the first Las Vegas race and the second Bristol race.
Logano, despite the strategic nature of his win, still ended up with the second-best rating and was the only other driver to crack into the 200s. He recorded the highest Expected Average Running Position (XARP) of any driver besides Bell and also outperformed his team’s Equipment Rating more than any other driver. That latter number can largely be attributed to a technicality, though, as both of Logano’s Team Penske teammates, Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric, were taken out in an accident.
Much has been made of Logano’s performance this season these past few days, as his win locks him in as one of four drivers who will battle for the Cup Series title at Phoenix in three weeks. He sits 15th in the season-long standings and only 11th in TDR, but to his credit, he has legitimately stepped up his game during the playoffs. After recording an average rating of 113.61 during the regular season, Logano has increased that number to 146.24 in the seven playoff races thus far.
In third place in the metrics on Sunday was William Byron, who flip-flopped with Daniel Suarez in fourth from their finishing positions. Byron may have had the second-best car in the late stages behind only Bell, while Suarez was in position to win on fuel mileage before Logano passed him in the final laps. Suarez led 57 laps during the race, all via pit strategy, but he did tie for the race’s best Pass Differential with a plus-27, so it’s safe to say he earned his way to the front.
The next few finishers on the track — Alex Bowman, Martin Truex, Jr., and Ross Chastain — all ranked no worse than 11th in the metrics, with Chris Buescher also appearing in the top 10 after his 10th-place result. Denny Hamlin, however, was not rated so highly despite finishing eighth, as he ran poorly through much of the race and had one of the worst pass differentials of any driver at minus-23. Hamlin was saved by the fuel strategy, as was John Hunter Nemechek, who snuck in a ninth-place effort with the 15th-best TDR score.
Several of the drivers near the bottom of the chart — notably Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Blaney — were victims of the multi-car accident mentioned above. They can’t be faulted for their finishes, but unfortunately, since Average Running Position is such a heavy component in these ratings, there is no way around that when an accident occurs so early in a race.
On the bright side, though, those drivers’ early exits contributed to the promising Fairness Rating of .8741, the second week in a row with a score above .85. The merits of Logano’s place in NASCAR’s championship battle can be debated, but all in all, Las Vegas saw a fair, natural finish in which most drivers earned the results they got.
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