As the NFL regular season drew to a close a year ago, the sports world had all but decided who would win NFL MVP. Lamar Jackson’s impressive campaign, which helped lead the Baltimore Ravens to the AFC Championship Game, convinced voters to award Jackson his second MVP in five years.
One year later, the MVP race is as close as it’s been all year, entering the season’s final week.
Jackson, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Burrow had massive games in Week 17 to lift their squads to victory. Also, each made an individual case as to why they deserve to win the coveted MVP award.
Jackson and Allen each scored three touchdowns in blowout wins over the Houston Texans and New York Jets, respectively. Barkley became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for at least 2,000 yards in one season to help the Philadelphia Eagles clinch the two-seed in the NFC with a huge win over the Dallas Cowboys. Burrow once again battled to keep the Cincinnati Bengals in the playoff race with a four-touchdown performance in an overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
Suffice it to say, there’s not exactly a clear winner in this group.
Currently (according to DraftKings Sportsbook), Allen is still considered the betting favorite to win MVP at -300 (equivalent to an implied probability of 75%). Jackson has the second-best odds at +225 (implied probability of around 30%). Barkley and Burrow are tied for third at +1600 (implied probability of around 6%).
Despite the odds favoring Allen, each player has done more than enough to be considered an MVP. Who will win the award is anyone’s guess (spoiler alert: it will probably be Allen). However, who should win the award is a much more complicated discussion. Let’s look at each player’s individual stats, team success, and overall impact on that success to try to find an answer. These numbers arent in order either.
Jackson would be the heavy favorite if one were to go off stats alone. He ranks sixth in passing yards (3,955), first in yards per attempt (8.9), second in passing touchdowns (39), first in QBR (77.9), first in passer rating (121.6), and first in total touchdowns with 43 (39 passing, four rushing). He’s also in the top ten in completion percentage (67.9%). He has already set career-highs in every passing category and has only thrown four interceptions with one game left.
To top it all off, Jackson broke Michael Vick’s record for most rushing yards by a QB in NFL history, as he now sits at 6,110 career rushing yards. To make it even more impressive, Vick set the record in 143 career games, while Jackson broke the record in only 102 games.
The Ravens currently sit at 11-5, one game ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers. With a win (or Pittsburgh loss) in Week 18, the Ravens will clinch the AFC North division and the three seed in the AFC Playoffs. Baltimore will face off against the lowly Cleveland Browns, who have had Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at QB over Jameis Winston.
Whether the Browns stick with DTR or return to Winston in the season finale, the Ravens are the overwhelming favorites to win. A loss would not preclude Baltimore from making the playoffs, as they have already clinched a spot.
Despite having the greatest individual season of his career, Jackson is not considered the favorite to win MVP. Many have cited his supporting cast, including RB Derrick Henry on offense and Baltimore’s top rushing defense, as reasons why Jackson may not necessarily deserve MVP this season. In a way, this means that some do not attribute the lion’s share of the Ravens’ success to Jackson despite deserving said credit.
Overall, Jackson has performed well enough to be crowned MVP, and some may even say he’s the best overall player in the NFL. However, the voters seem to have someone else in mind.
Allen is having a fantastic year for the Buffalo Bills, leading them to 13 wins and the two seed in the AFC. He’s scored 40 touchdowns (28 passing, 12 rushing) and thrown only six interceptions. He’s doing all this in an offense that does not yet have a 1,000-yard rusher (although James Cook will surpass that mark with at least 19 rushing yards in Week 18) or a 1,000-yard receiver (Khalil Shakir leads the team with 821 receiving yards). The Bills have struggled defensively this year and are currently ranked in the bottom ten in total passing yards allowed (3,611).
Allen’s case for MVP is interesting. His numbers are a bit tamer compared to the rest of the candidates. He ranks ninth in passing yards (3,731), sixth in passing touchdowns (28), 20th in completion percentage (63.6%), and seventh in passer rating (101.4). He’s on pace for his lowest passing yards total (233.2 passing yards per game) since 2019, his second year in the league. His passing numbers are lower than Jackson’s or Burrow’s, but he has perhaps the worst offensive supporting cast out of these players.
While Jackson set the long-held QB rushing record in Week 17, Allen quietly set a record of his own. He became the first player in NFL history to record at least five straight seasons with at least 40 total touchdowns. The argument many will make for Allen’s MVP case is simple: “What if he had Lamar’s offensive supporting cast? Or Burrow’s?” Hypotheticals may not be the best argument, but they are always prevalent when discussing MVPs in ANY sport. Not only that, but voters also deal with “voter fatigue,” meaning they tend to vote for candidates who have yet to win the award they’re voting for.
CBS’s own Tony Romo pointed this out during the Bills vs. Jets game broadcast when discussing the MVP race between Allen and Jackson. Romo stated: “I think they’re tied in my brain. I think Josh Allen might get the edge because Lamar’s had two. If Josh had two, you’re gonna side with the guy who doesn’t have one…”
Romo may have given away the script, but Jackson (and others) still have one more week to prove they’re more deserving.
A running back had not won NFL MVP since 2012, when Adrian Peterson took home the award over Peyton Manning. Since then, however, QBs have dominated the award, taking home each of the last 11 MVP awards. If there’s one player that can break that trend, it’s Barkley.
Giants fans, look away. Barkley has had a historic first year in Philadelphia, setting a franchise record for rushing yards in a single season and becoming the ninth player in NFL history to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a season. With 2,005 rushing yards entering Week 18, Barkley needs 101 yards to break the all-time record for rushing yards in a single season. Eric Dickerson rushed for 2,105 yards for the Los Angeles Rams in 1984. Breaking a 40-year record previously thought unbreakable would propel Barkley to the top of the MVP conversation, deservedly so.
Barkley’s impact on the Eagles offense this year cannot be understated. QB Jalen Hurts has dealt with injuries and has less than 3,000 passing yards. A lack of an actual passing game typically hurts an offense’s ability to run the ball, but not for Philly. They won the NFC East and the two seed throughout the NFC Playoffs as they enter the season’s final week with 13 wins. Barkley’s historic season has also seen him score the most rushing touchdowns in a season in his career thus far with 13, and his 15 total touchdowns tie his own career high.
Running backs have been heavily undervalued for years in the NFL, but Barkley is leading an RB renaissance. His efforts deserve proper recognition, whether it be in the form of MVP or another award.
Due to Cincy’s paltry 8-8 record entering the regular season finale, Burrow’s MVP chances are miniscule. It would be a crime, however, to discount what Burrow has done for the Bengals this year, and his heroics have earned him a place in the MVP conversation, at the very least.
Burrow leads the league in passing yards (4,641) and passing touchdowns (42), ranks fifth in completion percentage (69.8%), and ranks third in both QBR (76.7) and passer rating (109.8). Like Allen, Burrow does not yet have a 1,000-yard rusher behind him on offense, although Chase Brown needs only ten yards to reach that milestone. There is a chance Brown doesn’t play in Cincy’s season finale at Pittsburgh, however, due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 17.
Burrow has not received help from his defense, which ranks in the bottom five in the league in yards allowed, with 359.9 yards allowed per game. They have also given up the second-most touchdowns in the league, with 48. Only the Carolina Panthers have allowed more touchdowns defensively (50).
The Bengals began the season 4-8, but Burrow going supernova has kept them in the playoff hunt. There’s a chance they snag the final wild card spot available in the AFC, but they need some help. Along with beating the Steelers, Cincinnati needs Denver and Miami to lose in Week 18. That may be a tall task, as Denver will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who will most likely be without Patrick Mahomes. In the meantime, Miami will square off against the lowly New York Jets.
It’s unlikely, but not impossible, for the Bengals to make it to the playoffs. Even an appearance, however, most likely will not be enough to sway the MVP votes in Burrow’s favor, even though he has sometimes looked like the best quarterback in the NFL.
It’s safe to say that Jackson, Allen, Barkley, and Burrow were the top four players in the NFL in 2024. Each player’s impact has been evident to their coaches, teammates, and fans. However, one stands above the rest.
Lamar Jackson has dominated defenses all year and deserves to win his third MVP trophy. His overall impact on the Ravens has been more significant than anyone else on their team. Unfortunately for Jackson, however, the voters may not see it that way.
Barring an outlandishly poor outing in Week 18, expect Josh Allen to win his first NFL MVP in February.
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