Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Vladdy) a great player? Statistically speaking, he is absolutely on pace for greatness. Baseball fans looking from afar are quick to draw comparisons with his father, Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad Sr. was a first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee in 2018, following an illustrious 16-year MLB career. Vladdy’s list of accomplishments and statistics are certainly comparable to his Dad’s. He seems to fit the bill and well-deserved label of a tier 1 MLB Superstar.
Blue Jays fans, though, might have a different perspective of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., “the Superstar.”. Especially now that he has stated there will be no further discussions on a deal between him and the organization that raised him through the ranks of professional baseball.
If history is an indicator of what is to come, then here is what the latest news coming out of Toronto will mean for the 2025 season.
Vladdy will get off to his usual slow start, and the Blue Jays will be in last place from April – June. In a desperate move by the front office, he’ll be shipped off for a below-market package of fill-ins and prospects.
Then Vladdy will heat up and help whatever team he gets traded to, culminating in a postseason appearance with his new rental team. Vladdy’s surge in popularity and increased media exposure will spike his valuation. Then he’ll sign with the larger market team for 700m.
There are ways to avoid this potentially embarrassing scenario for the Blue Jays. The first would be to trade Vladdy right now before the season begins. His value as a trade piece is sky-high at the moment, and the return would be a considerably decent hitter and highly ranked prospects. The Blue Jays will still compete in 2025 using this strategy, and they will set themselves up for success in the future.
A trade might sting the fan base for a while, especially considering that the Blue Jays are in the same awkward situation with former All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette. Both of these second-generation MLB stars came up through the organization at the same time. A fair trade could potentially make the Blue Jays stronger.
The other option is to sit back and watch Vladdy and Bo advocate for their own value on the field in 2025. If both have career years as they move into free agency, it will inevitably mean that the Blue Jays Jays will likely be in playoff contention.
This scenario would involve keeping both players for the entire season and hoping for the best in free agency next Fall. They will cash in, and the Jays could be left with nothing once Vladdy and Bo sign with new teams, but at least they went for it at full strength in 2025.
That is the “All-In” strategy, where players and fans are well aware that they are going for it in 2025 with the idea of “buying” prior to the deadline. This will be the final push for a World Series with this core group of Blue Jays. Exciting times!
Vladdy, in particular, will need to come out hot in April. With new acquisition Anthony Santander hitting behind him, Vladdy should see more hittable pitches. He wants to follow the blueprint of Juan Soto with the Yankees in 2024. Hitting in the third hole between Bichette and Santander, Vladdy will be put in a position to succeed from day one. The lineup is strong one through four, with either George Springer or Andres Gimenez leading off.
It’s a tune that Blue Jays fans have heard before. The Jays ranked close to the bottom in team run support in the American League over the past two seasons. The offense has been a perpetual disappointment, with Vladdy being far from “clutch” in most situations where he needed to pick his teammates up. If he wants top dollar from any club, he will need to surpass his best seasons, perhaps even 2021. If that happens, the Blue Jays will go all-in and build a cast to support him for a run at the playoffs this season.
There are far worse situations to be in than to have two-star players in the lineup who are trying to boost their own stock. Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, and the Blue Jays front office will be watching Vladdy’s form and progress very closely during Spring Training. Tough conversations and choices lie ahead. At this time, the Blue Jays are a stronger team, heading in 2025 with Vladdy having turned down offers to start the season.
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