10/4/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Game two of this interdivisional series kicks off tonight as the Blue Jays have locked up their wild card playoff spot while the Orioles have been eliminated and will be watching from home after tomorrow’s game. The Jays should be pushing to stay hot while they roll into the playoffs, will the Orioles push back?
Starting on the mound for the Orioles is Mike Baumann who in just three total starts and twelve appearances on the year has a 4.34 ERA and a 4.78 xERA. In his three starts on the year he has totaled 13 innings he has allowed seven runs to score. In his 32 plate appearances against this Jays’ offense, he has allowed a .333 batting average and a .355 wOBA.
Behind Baumann in the Orioles’ bullpen will not be much relief as the Orioles pen has the 28th best ERA out of the bullpen over the past 30 days. In the past month, they have had a 5.43 ERA. Today this pitching staff will be taking on a Blue Jays’ offense that has been on fire as of late. In the past month, they are the best offense in baseball both overall with a 132 wRC+ (league average being 100) and against right-handed pitchers, which he will face today, with a .355 wOBA.
The Blue Jays’ starting pitcher today has not been stellar, so we are going to choose today’s best bet based on the Jays’ offense alone. Take them to score over their projected 3.5 team total in this matchup and don’t worry about if they win or not.
TOR TT O 3.5, -110.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
These Brewers were one of the few teams left with a chance to make it to the playoffs as of yesterday, but with a Phillies win and a Brewers loss, Milwaukee is officially eliminated. The Dbacks will look to take advantage of their misery and finish the season on a high note.
Starting on the mound tonight for the Diamondbacks will be Zac Gallen. He has turned into a front runner for the NL Cy Young as he has a 2.46 ERA and a 3.10 xERA on the season. He has faced this Brewers team once this season and in that start, he threw seven scoreless innings while taking home the win. Overall, against the Brewers lineup in his career over 48 plate appearances he has allowed them to just a .128 batting average and a .155 wOBA.
On the other side for the Brewers is left-hander Eric Lauer. On the year Lauer has a 3.83 ERA and a 4.13 xERA. Over the past month of September, he totaled 17 innings and had a 5.82 ERA. He has also squared off against today’s foe once already this year and in that outing, he took the loss while allowing two earned runs over 6.2 innings pitched.
The offenses here are evenly matched up but the starting pitcher discrepancy is noticeable. The Brewers also for the first time this year have nothing to play for and likely will sit some starters as they have been pushing for the past few weeks to desperately make the playoffs. Take the Dbacks here while Gallen continues to try to strengthen his numbers for a Cy Young argument.
ARI ML, -115.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
This battle between the bottom teams of the AL West division seemingly has zero importance to either team, but it looks as if the Angels are playing to win now and to end the year so they can start on a positive note next year as they have won eight of their last ten games.
Starting on the mound for the Angels today is Michael Lorenzen. Coming into his last start of the year he brings with him a 4.52 ERA and a 3.97 xERA. He has faced off with this A’s team three times already this season and in those outings, he totaled 18 innings while allowing just one earned run to score. In 45 plate appearances for the A’s lineup against Lorenzen, they have a combined wOBA of .230 and a batting average of .175.
On the other side for the Athletics is Cole Irvin. On the season thus far Irvin has a 4.11 ERA and a 4.46 xERA. While Irvin was one of the positive surprise stories of the year for the A’s he has come back to earth in the past month. In September over 27.1 innings pitched he has an 8.23 ERA. He has also not fared well against this Angels lineup, in 135 plate appearances he has allowed them a .352 batting average and a .409 wOBA.
One of these two teams is still trying to win every day and the other is not. Take the Angels to finish off the season strong with this positive matchup and beat the A’s today.
LAA ML, -135.
Bonus (Non-Best) Bets!
CHC ML: The Reds offense has been downright terrible, and Assad for the Cubs has been solid as of late.
ATL ML: Let’s try this again. The Braves may have been tired coming off of Sunday night baseball yesterday. They should be rested now to take on the Fins.
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