2024 is Chris Sale's Comeback Year... Or Is It?

After a five-year rough patch including Tommy John surgery and "a series of freak injuries", Chris Sale has not only returned to the field but dominated it as the Atlanta Braves' starting pitcher. He currently has the best ERA in the MLB and seems to be on the fast-track to receiving a Cy Young award. But is this epic comeback story too good to be true?

Despite The Injuries Decimating The Braves Roster, 2024 Has Been Chris Sale's First Injury-Free Season Since 2018. But How Long Until The Braves' Bad Luck Catches Up To Him?

Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale is on his way to becoming the greatest comeback story in MLB history. 

Between 2012 and 2018, Sale made seven All-Star teams, won a ring with the Boston Red Sox, and showed up on four Most Valuable Player ballots. Though he “has five top-five finishes in the Cy Young voting”, Sale has yet to actually win a Cy Young. 

After his seven-season streak, Sale went through a five-year rough patch. His 2019 season was cut short by an elbow injury. This elbow inflammation led to Sale getting Tommy John surgery in March 2020, which kept him off of the field until August 2021. Rather than being the start of a smooth transition back into the game, this return was the start of “a series of freak injuries.” Between 2021 and 2022, Sale endured “a stress fracture in his right rib cage, a broken left pinkie finger and a broken right wrist sustained in a bike accident.” 

It wasn’t until the spring of 2023 that Sale began Spring Training with the Red Sox without any health issues. 

In December 2023, Sale joined the Atlanta Braves as a starting pitcher and began his epic comeback.  His acquisition was part of a series of bold off-season moves by Alex Anthopoulos, Braves President of Baseball Operations and General Manager. During the previous season, the Braves were able to take home their sixth consecutive National League East Trophy despite having lost two thirty-game starters- Max Fried and Kyle Wright- to injuries. This achievement was primarily the result of the incredible performance of frontline starter Spencer Strider. It would have been easy for the Braves to “run it back,” “rest on their laurels”, and assume that they would be able to rely on a single starter to keep the roster afloat when players inevitably got injured. But Anthopoulos decided to be proactive and sign two new starters: Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale. 

These bold moves paid off when, during an April game against Arizona, starting Strider complained of “discomfort in his elbow” after pitching four innings. The next day, an MRI was revealed that Strider had damage to his UCL. The Braves announced that Strider would be out for the rest of the season “after having surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.”  

Sale proved instrumental in keeping the Braves rotation afloat amid the plethora of injuries plaguing the Braves. As Bleacher Report writes, “the Braves have put together one of the most dominant pitching rotations in baseball in large part thanks to Sale's stunning start.” 

 According to Fastball, Sale currently has the best ERA in the MLB, a whopping 2.38! He also leads the MLB in strikeouts, having “struck out 255 batters in just 177.1 innings.” According to the Atlanta Journal constitution, Sale has “allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his past 18 starts, dating to June 7.” This is “the longest single-season run of starts with two or fewer earned runs by a full-time starter” to be recorded since 1913, when earned runs became an official statistic. 

When SB Nation Reacts asked fans which Atlanta Braves pitcher is most deserving of a spot in the All-Star game, Chris Sale won with 56% of the vote. Reynaldo Lopez received 38% of the vote and Max Fried received 6%. As Battery Power points out, Sale “has exceeded all of the expectations the Braves had for him coming into the 2024 season.” 

Unfortunately for Braves fans, Sale’s Cy Young award and spot on the All-Star team are not guaranteed. In light of recent events, fans are starting to wonder whether their dreams of seeing Sale win a Cy Young will have to stay dreams for a bit longer. 

In June, MLB executives stated that Chris Sale was “‘bound for regression.’” According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the executives were “skeptical that Sale can maintain his 0.95 WHIP.” 

During September 19th’s game against the San Diego Padres, “The radar gun measured Sale's 4-seam fastball more than two MPH slower than what his season average has been.” Justin Toscano stated in an X post that Sale threw one fastball at 89.4 and several others at 89.7. Tuscano explained, "Before today, Sale had only thrown one four-seamer under 90 mph. He had only thrown 15 four-seamers at 91 mph or below." 

MLB’s Mark Bowman also noticed that Sale’s fastballs were slower than usual during Thursday’s game. 

It’s not just professional sports writers. Many Braves fans have noticed that Sale’s fastballs have slowed down and have taken to social media to express concern. 

On September 14, X-User Austin Cain-Reach posted some of Sale's recent fastball velocities, observing that Sale was "down a tick or two in each of his last two starts." He admitted that Sale was "brilliant in his last two games", but acknowledged that "he'll likely need his good velo vs. a top opponent like LAD."

Based on Sale's history of injuries and the astronomical amount of injuries that have plagued the Braves this season, some fans assumed that this decrease in velocity was the result of an injury.

Others provided other explanations for this decrease in velocity besides an injury. Several X-users pointed out that the weather conditions during Thursday's game were less than ideal, which could have negatively impacted to Sale's performance.

Some fans believed that Sale was "battling for control" and decreased his fastball velocity out of necessity.

Sports Illustrated provides another potential explanation: "Sale could be wearing down after a long season." At 35 (which is considered old in the baseball world), Sale has pitched 177.2 innings in 2024. This is more innings than he pitched in 2017 when he was leading the National League in innings.

Maybe Chris Sale was having a bad day. Maybe the heat was getting to him. Maybe he is getting tired after a long, exhausting season. Maybe he will win the Cy Young Award. Maybe he won't. Maybe he'll earn a spot on the All-Star team. Maybe he won't. Chris Sale is and will always be an integral part of the Braves' pitching rotation. Braves fans will be rooting for Sale no matter what.

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