NFL Draft Boom or Bust: First Round Quarterbacks
There’s nothing like watching your favorite NFL team draft a QB in the first round. The feeling of excitement and the potential of watching an entire franchise turn around is unmatched. But not all QBs work out. For every Lamar Jackson, there’s also a Josh Rosen. So, which of 2024's first-rounders are in a position to win, and which have a harder path to success?
Caleb Williams: BOOM
1st overall picks are tricky, but I think it's farily obvious that Caleb has a great career ahead of him. I see the Bears struggling early on to find chemistry and to get into their groove. But for the first time in a long time, Chicago seems to be setting their quarterback up very well. They drafted a top 3 wide receiver 9th overall in Rome Odunze, and they made some very strong moves in the offseason. So, despite any shortcomings in 2024, the Bears can be a force coming out of both Caleb’s and Rome’s rookie seasons. I think Chicago has their guy, as long as they treat him as such.
Jayden Daniels: BOOM
My favorite quarterback in this draft class. Jayden Daniels is a unique case. He has immense talent on the field, and he carries himself like an NFL quarterback. The only caveat here is he was drafted by the Commanders. I mentioned the Bears setting Williams up for success, and Washington is trying the same thing. However, I don’t see them getting things right with Daniels. He could be the best player on a bad team, but eventually, he might move on to something more promising and hit his stride there. The Commanders have all the pieces; they just struggle to put it together in any meaningful way. I believe Daniels will have a great career; I just don’t see it happening in Washington.
Drake Maye: BUST
This one may be the hardest to predict. New England has gone through an entire regime change this year. There’s no way to assume we know anything about their plans moving forward. Drake Maye is a good quarterback; he went 3rd overall and that was warranted. However, I think the pressure in New England will be insane. This is a city that’s accustomed to winning. Coming off a Celtics championship, they want to see the Pats succeed, and if they struggle early, Maye can lose a lot of support. It’s a fresh start for head coach Jerod Mayo but building this legendary team back up won’t be easy. While I believe Drake Maye is talented enough to take on the challenge, I just worry that a lack of immediate success could hinder his career in the long run.
Michael Penix Jr.: BUST
The Atlanta Falcons paid Kirk Cousins, an established veteran, $180 million for 4 years. Then they drafted 24-year-old Michael Penix Jr. 8th overall. Honestly, Penix might be the most NFL-ready quarterback in this draft. He’s got almost everything you can ask for in a first-rounder. But Kirk Cousins is a reliable, consistent guy, and he’s locked up for the next 4 years. There’s no way to predict what the Falcons will look like in 4 years. But if Penix doesn’t get to start until he’s 28 years old, his career might be very underwhelming. Sitting behind a veteran is almost always a good choice, but spending what could be your prime behind a veteran could be detrimental. Penix is talented, unfortunately we might not get to see it on a big stage before it’s too late.
JJ McCarthy: BOOM
This one may be a bit controversial. Leading into the draft, there was a strong belief in the NFL community that JJ McCarthy was overrated. The reigning College Football Champion might not be a top 3 QB in this draft, but he could be in a great position to succeed. The words "system quarterback" are thrown around alot. I don't think that completely applies to McCarthy, but he is someone who can benefit most from the situation around him. Yes, he may sit behind Sam Darnold for a while, but that’s not a long-term move for Minnesota. Once McCarthy gets that starting job, he’ll be surrounded by plenty of talent. He’ll have the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson, a growing receiver in Jordan Addison, and running back Aaron Jones in the backfield. McCarthy won't be the best player on the team, and he might never be. But the Vikings are almost always playoff contenders, and if JJ can come close to Kirk Cousins' skill level, he'll be on a path to success.
Bo Nix: BUST
I hate to end this list on a low note, but this prediction has less to do with Bo Nix and more to do with the situation in Denver. Denver has a very weak quarterback room, joining Nix are Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. He won’t have much room to grow without some kind of veteran guidance. Nix is not a bad quarterback by any means, but I don’t believe he’s better than any of the 5 QBs that went before him. On top of that, the Broncos have been a messy team for quite a few years now, and it doesn’t seem like that’s changing anytime soon. Bo Nix could pan out to be a great QB, but for now, his future in Denver doesn’t look extremely promising.
Enjoying this article? Check out even more sports content on Stadium Rant!
EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNTS:
Order your favorite whiskey or spirit for the big game right to your doorstep and use code STADIUMRANT10 for a 10% discount at Caskers
Use code STADIUMRANT20 for a 20% discount at Bulletproof Coffee, SwingJuice and Performix.
If you love to shotgun beers, use code STADIUMRANT10 at Wild Man Drinking Company.
MORE FROM STADIUM RANT:
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to our newsletter here. Check out Stadium Rant Original shows on our Youtube channel and subscribe! Give our socials Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok a follow for more great content!