8/29/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers Vs. Miami Marlins:
Michael Grove vs. Pablo Lopez
A new series starts today between a couple of teams on the opposite sides of the standings. The powerful Dodgers lead all of baseball with an 88-38 record compared to the Marlins at 55-72. The Dodgers were supposed to have their Cy Young contender on the mound today in Tony Gonsolin but halfway through the day they added him to the IL and called upon a rookie to take the mound instead.
Rather than Gonsolin on the mound tonight the Dodgers will send Michael Grove. He only has 4.2 innings of major league work this year so there is not much to base an opinion off of. In those 4.2 innings he has a 5.79 ERA and a 3.11 xERA. He will be taking on a Marlins offense that has been anemic this season and especially over the past month. In the past 30 days the Marlins offense is last in all of baseball offensively with a wRC+ of 68 (league average being 100). Against RHP like Grove they are 29th in baseball in terms of wOBA with a .275 average. Backing up Grove out of the bullpen will be the 2nd best pen in baseball over the past month with an ERA of 2.19.
On the other side for the Marlins is Pablo Lopez who brings with him a 3.66 ERA and a 3.90 xERA on the season. He started off the season spectacularly but so far this month it has been rocky to say the least. So far in the month of August he has a 5.06 ERA in 21.1 IP. He will be the unfortunate one to face the red hot Dodgers offense tonight. In the past month the Dodgers are 1st in baseball against RHP, which Lopez is, with a .378 wOBA and 2nd in the MLB overall with a 136 wRC+. Behind Lopez in the Marlins pen is the 23rd best bullpen over the past month with an ERA of 4.45.
The Dodgers offense should continue its dominant ways against a starter for the Marlins that has struggled as of late and a bullpen that has struggled all year. Instead of betting the Dodgers to win outright at a hefty price with an unproven rookie on the mound, we will bet entirely on this thriving Dodgers offense by betting their team total. Take the over on the Dodgers run total of 4.5 today as they take advantage of the Marlins pitching woes.
LAD TT O 4.5, +100.
Boston Red Sox Vs. Minnesota Twins:
Brayan Bello vs. Dylan Bundy
A classic battle of the veteran starting pitcher vs the prized rookie starter kicks off this American League battle tonight. Both teams are fighting to stay alive in the playoff race and need every win they can muster.
To try to start this series off on the right foot for the Twins will be Dylan Bundy. On the year he has a 4.56 ERA and a 3.98 xERA. At home though, which is where he will be tonight, he has thrived. While at home this year Bundy has a 2.68 ERA. Overall, in his last 3 starts he has only given up 3 total runs. Backing him up out of the Twins bullpen is a top 10 unit. They rank 10th in the league with an ERA of 3.55 over the past month.
For the Red Sox, they will send top prospect Brayan Bello to the mound today. His season has not gone as planned so far as he brings with him a 7.36 ERA and a 3.11 xERA. The Red Sox have lost all 6 games that he has appeared in so far this year. He does not last long in games and when he exits the Boston bullpen shouldn’t fare much better against this Twins offense. The Boston bullpen is the worst in baseball over the past month with a 5.77 ERA.
These offenses are very evenly matched at this point in the season, but the pitching advantage strongly favors the Twins. Take the team with the superior seasoned starter and a bullpen that is not last in all of baseball at a very cheap price today. Twins should win this one easily.
MIN ML, -115.
Pittsburgh Pirates Vs. Milwaukee Brewers:
Bryse Wilson vs. Corbin Burnes
An inter-division series starts tonight between a team fighting to stay in the race for the division championship and a team that is fighting to stay out of the cellar. Unfortunately for the Pirates, they will be facing a former Cy Young winner who has been spectacular as of late.
For the Brewers they send Corbin Burnes to the mound with his 2.84 ERA and 2.94 xERA on the season. Burnes is familiar with his opposition tonight as he has faced them 3 times already and in those outings he went a total of 18.1 innings while allowing 7 ER. In the past month though the Pirates offense has struggled. When facing RHP like Burnes they are last in baseball (30th) offensively with a .274 team wOBA. They are also 2nd to last (29th) in baseball overall offensively in the month with a 76 wRC+.
For the Pirates they have Bryse Wilson on the mound who brings with him a 6.01 ERA and a 5.46 xERA. In the month of August in 23.2 IP he has a 5.32 ERA. He will be facing a Brewers offense that has success against RHP over the past month, which Wilson is, as they have the 6th best team wOBA with an average of .328 and an above average offense overall with a 102 wRC+.
There is a clear discrepancy in talent on the mound tonight. There is also a discrepancy in the fight these two teams have at this point in the year. The Brewers have to win every game they can to keep up in the Division race and will push to start this series off on the right foot against the lowly Pirates. Take the Brewers to win handily in this one and cover the run line of 1.5.
MIL RL, -1.5. -155.
BONUS (NON BEST) BETS!
STL RL -1.5: It’s not the best bet today due to the Cardinals traveling late last night for this game, but they’re the obviously better team here.
TOR TT O 5: Blue Jays are due to rebound against a low-quality SP and bullpen out of the Cubs.
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