8/31/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Jose Quintana vs. Mike Minor
The exciting conclusion of this divisional series wraps up tonight between two teams headed in opposite directions. Both sides are looking to win this rubber match game 3 tonight to take the series and head on to the next.
For the Cardinals, they will send trade deadline acquisition Jose Quintana to the mound to take on the Reds. On the year he has a 3.45 ERA and a 4.24 xERA. He has faced this Reds team once already this season when he was a member of the Pirates. In that outing, he went 7 innings and allowed 0 Reds to score. The Reds offense as a whole over the past month has not been pretty. They are 26th in all of baseball in terms of wRC+ with an 83 rating.
For the Reds, they will send long-time journeyman starter Mike Minor to the bump. Minor is not having the best season of his long career thus far, as he has a 6.10 ERA and a 4.18 xERA this year. He fares even worse when at home in Cincinnati where he has a 6.37 ERA. He will be taking on a red-hot Cardinals offense that has been the best offense in all of baseball over the past month with a wRC+ rating of 147. Against LHP like Minor, they are 4th in baseball over the past 30 days with a wOBA of .372.
The Cardinals have been dominant against lefties this year, expect them to hit Minor early and often in this one and carry a sizeable lead to the end. The Cardinals are heavy money line favorites here at .242, so to cut down the juice take St. Louis on the run line to win by more than 1.5 runs in an easy victory.
STL RL, -1.5, -140.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Tyler Anderson vs. Jacob Degrom
We’re going back to the well with this series tonight. I mentioned yesterday this would be a fantastic series and game 1 did not disappoint. Today though the Mets get their Cy Young-winning ace on the mound to try to even up the series.
New York will send Jacob Degrom to the mound tonight to try to slow down the powerful Dodger bats. On the season Degrom has an ERA of 2.15 and an xERA of 1.72. He has been nothing short of masterful so far this season and would likely be in line for another Cy Young if he hadn’t had spent most of the first half of the season injured. Tonight though he will be taking on a Dodger offense that is top 2 in baseball offensively over the past month. Both 2nd in overall offense with a 133 wRC+ and against right handers like Degrom with a team wOBA of .270.
The Dodgers will send Tyler Anderson to try to keep up with Degrom and the Mets offense. On the season Anderson has a 2.69 ERA and a 3.14 xERA. He faced these same Mets once this year and in that start he went 6 innings while allowing 0 ER. He will face off again with a Mets offense that has been great this year. In the past month they are 4th overall with a wRC+ of 117, but they do not fare well against lefties like Anderson. In August against LHP they are just 23rd in baseball offensively with a .290 team wOBA.
There have been very few instances this year where the Dodgers have been underdogs, let alone this large of an underdog, as they are the best team in Baseball and have been all season. Facing off against Jacob Degrom will do that though. The Dodgers as an underdog here is a fantastic value considering they still have the better offense, the better matchup, and a comparable pitching situation. Take the Dodgers at plus money as it won’t happen often the rest of the year.
LAD ML, +140.
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves:
Ryan Feltner vs. Kyle Wright
After a shocking victory last night for the Rockies over the heavily favored Braves each time has a chance to take home this series tonight. The Braves will look to come out hot and show the world that they are better than this Rockies team who is at the bottom of their division standings.
To do so, the Braves will send Kyle Wright to the mound tonight. On the year Wright has a 2.99 ERA and a 3.90 xERA. Over his last 3 starts, he has totaled 19 innings while only allowing 3 ER. Tonight he will be taking on a Rockies team that is bottom 1/3rd in all offensive categories. They are 28th in all of baseball on offense in the past month with a team wRC+ of 80 (100 being league average). Against righties like Wright, they are 21st in baseball with a team wOBA of .294.
On the other side starting on the mound for the Rockies is Ryan Feltner. On the year thus far he carries a 5.87 ERA and a 5.73 xERA. He fares even worse while on the road, which is where he will be today, with a 6.19 ERA. He has faced this Braves offense once already this year and it didn’t go particularly well. He lasted just 3 innings and gave up 6 ER. This Braves offense has been outstanding this year and in the past month are in the top 4 in all of baseball. They are 3rd overall with a wRC+ of 118 and 4th against RHP like Feltner with a .294 team wOBA.
The Braves are by far the better team in this matchup and after losing in embarrassing fashion last night to a worse team they should come out firing. They are extremely heavy favorites as can be imagined at -317 so we are going to cut the juice as we did with the Cardinals and take Atlanta on the run line -1.5. They should have no problem winning by more than one with this pitching matchup.
ATL RL, -1.5, -145.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
MIN ML: Wacha is coming back to earth for the Sox and the Twins still have something to fight for.
SEA ML: Line is just not big enough for the Mariners when going against the worst offense in baseball. Love the value.
NYY/LAA Under 7.5: Cole vs Sandoval and two struggling offenses.
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