9/16/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox Daily Best Bets
Jonathan Heasley vs. Michael Wacha
These teams will face off tonight without much motivation to push for the end of the season as both are out of the playoff race. But, each will still have pride on the line and jobs to fight for to show they can finish the season well.
To start off the game for the Royals is Jonathan Heasley who has a 5.51 ERA and a 5.63 xERA on the season so far. So far in the month of September he has thrown 11 innings and has a 7.36 ERA. Both of those starts were against the lowly Detroit Tigers and allowed nine ER in those 11 innings. Tonight he will be facing off with a much stronger opposition. The Red Sox offense is top six in baseball over the past month offensively with a wRC+ of 118 (100 is league average). Against right handed pitchers specifically, which Heasley is, they are 5th overall with a .336 wOBA in the past month.
On the other side for the Sox is Michael Wacha with his 2.69 ERA and 4.16 xERA on the season. The difference in his ERA vs expected ERA may be due to his home/away splits. He loves pitching at home in Fenway, which is where he will be today, with a 1.79 ERA compared to his road ERA of 3.36. He will be taking on a Royals offense that has struggled in the past month. In that timeframe they are the 28th best offense overall with a 78 wRC+ and against righties like Wacha they are dead last in baseball with a .266 wOBA.
While both of these teams are out of the playoff race, there is one clear superior team here. They both have bad bullpens so we are going to avoid that risk entirely and cut our bet to the first five innings and assume the Sox win those first five and bet them on the runline.
BOS F5 RL, -0.5, -135.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Daily Best Bets
Mitch Keller vs. Taijuan Walker
Game two of this four game set takes place tonight between these team who are on opposite sides of the Standings. The Mets have been struggling of late while they try to hold their division lead and the Pirates are in the cellar of the National League standings but are still fighting for their future.
Starting off for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller who has turned his season around as of late. On the year though he has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.16 xERA. He will be on the road in New York for today start, and while on the road Keller has a 4.09 ERA. Today he will be taking on a Mets offense that has been top 3 in all of baseball over the past month. Overall they have been third in wRC+ with a 121 rating and against righties like Keller they are also third with a wOBA of .338.
On the other side of the matchup is Taijuan Walker for the Mets. On the year he carries a 3.48 ERA and a 4.07 xERA. While he started out the season on a hot streak he has been below average as of late. He had a 2.55 ERA before the all-star break and has a 5.44 ERA since. He faced off against these Pirates just 10 days ago and in that start he took the loss while going five innings and allowing four pirates to score.
This matchup features one fantastic offense vs another who is far from fantastic but facing off against a starter on the downward swing. Take the over in this game as a 7.5 line is for at least one Ace in the matchup, but neither of those exist here. The Pirates have a terrible bullpen as well, so the over might not hit until they show up but the over is sure to hit.
PIT/NYM OVER 7.5, -110.
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Daily Best Bets
Robbie Ray vs. Michael Lorenzen
A new divisional matchup starts tonight between one team fighting for their playoff spot and the other fighting to avoid embarrassment for another lost season. Both have motivation today to take down their rival and will be pushing to start this series off on the right foot.
Starting on the mound tonight for the Angels is Michael Lorenzen who brings with him a 4.70 ERA and an xERA of 4.31. He is fresh off of the injured list and has made one start since returning. Before that though he has faced off against this Mariners offense twice and in those starts he totaled eight innings and allowed nine earned runs. Overall this Mariners offense in the past month has been a top ten unit. They are eighth overall with a 112 wRC+ and against right handed pitchers like Lorenzen they are also eighth with a .321 wOBA.
For the Mariners they will send former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to the bump. So far this season he has a 3.56 ERA and a 3.53 xERA. He has faced this Angels team three times already on the season and in those starts he went 20 innings and allowed just four earned runs while going 2-0. The Angels offense he is facing today is in the bottom half of nearly all offensive statistics over the past month. Specifically they are 19th overall offensively with a 95 wRC+ and against lefties like Ray they are 16th in wOBA with a .313 average.
The Mariners have the matchup advantage in this one, the better offense, the better pitcher, and their bullpen is top 5 in ERA in the past month. Take them to win this one tonight on the money line as they should be heavier favorites but are not.
SEA ML, -160.
BONUS (NON BEST) BETS!
CWS ML: Sox offense is on fire right now while going against one of the worst in the league.
LAD ML: Same as above, Dodgers offense is always hot and the Giants are not.
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