9/19/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays Daily Best Bets:
Luis Garcia vs. Drew Rasmussen
Two hot teams ready for the playoffs to start kick off a new series today in Tampa Bay. Each side is looking to solidify their spot in the playoffs and will send one of their top starters to do so.
For Houston tonight they will send Luis Garcia to the mound to take on the Rays offense. On the season Garcia has a 4.04 ERA and a 3.52 xERA. He has had a good year but has not fared particularly as well as of late, as he has allowed three or more runs in eight of his last nine starts. He will be taking on a Rays team that hits him well, the Rays starting lineup has a .294 batting average against him and a .403 wOBA.
On the other side of the matchup starting for the Rays is Drew Rasmussen who brings with him a 2.77 ERA and a 3.42 xERA. Ras will be at home in Tampa Bay today where he has thrived so far this year. At home on the season he has a 1.97 ERA. He will be facing off against a potent Astros lineup tonight, but this lineup has not done as well against him as most starters they face. Against Ras in their careers the Astros lineup has a .238 batting average and a .251 wOBA.
Both teams have top 3 bullpens over the past month in regards to xFIP with 2.55 and 3.35 ERA’s. The Rays have been hot as of late, have the better starter and the better offense at this moment. While the Astros likely will advance further in the postseason between these two teams, the Rays have the upper hand today.
TB ML, -125.
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Daily Best Bets:
Max Scherzer vs. Corbin Burnes
Two of the best starting pitchers in the National League face off tonight in Milwaukee. They both still have something to fight for this season as the Mets have the Braves hot on their heels for the NL East Division lead, the Brewers are trying to keep up in the NL Wild Card chase.
Starting today for the Mets today is former NL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. On the season he has a 2.26 ERA and a 2.93 xERA. In his last two outings he has totaled 12 innings pitched and allowed just two earned runs while striking out 16. He will be taking on a Brewers team today that barely above league average in wRC+ over the past 30 days with a 103 wRC+ (league average is 100). Backing up Scherzer out of the Mets bullpen is the 8th best unit over the past month with a 2.94 ERA.
For the Brewers they will send another former Cy Young winner to represent their side of the matchup in Corbin Burnes. On the season Burnes has a 2.97 ERA and a 3.11 xERA. He started off the year on a tear but as of late has become quite pedestrian. He has allowed three or more runs in five of his last six outings. Today he will be facing a Mets offense that is both the 3rd best offense against right handed pitchers (.339 wOBA) and 3rd best overall with a 120 wRC+ over the past month. Behind him in relief is the 21st best bullpen unit with a 4.39 ERA over the past 30 days.
This will be a fantastic pitchers duel tonight but at this stage of their season the Mets have the superior starting pitcher, offense, and bullpen. Take the cheap price on one of the best teams in baseball with one of their best starters in the Mets in this game.
NYM ML, -105.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Daily Best Bets:
Merrill Kelly vs. Clayton Kershaw
A new NL West battle starts tonight between a team at the top of the divisional standings and the other at the bottom. The Dbacks are fighting to show that they will be a force in this division in the near future while the Dodgers continue to roll to easy victory after easy victory.
Kicking off the series for the Diamondbacks will be Merrill Kelly on the mound with his 3.01 ERA and 3.28 xERA. He has had a solid season thus far but when he faces this Dodgers team he doesn’t quite fare as well. He has faced off with this Dodgers team four times this season already and in those starts he has allowed 17 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. The Dodgers lineup in their careers has a .356 batting average and a .421 wOBA against him. Backing him up out of the pen is no relief at all, as the Dbacks relievers over the past month have a 7.08 ERA, last in the majors.
On the other side for the first place Dodgers is another Cy Young winner in Clayton Kershaw who has a 2.44 ERA and a 2.52 xERA on the season. He appears to be back to Cy Young form this year and especially so as of late. In the month of September thus far he has a 1.50 ERA in 18 total innings. He will be taking on an Arizona offense that does not fare well against left handers like Kershaw. They have the 28th best wOBA vs lefties in the past month with a .265 average.
There is one clear superior team in this matchup today. While the Dodgers dont have much left to play for as they have wrapped up their division already they have a far better pitcher, offense, and bullpen and could sleep walk in this one by winning by more than a run. Lets cut the juice in this matchup and take the Dodgers to win easily on the run line.
LAD RL, -1.5, -130.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
SF ML: The Giants aren’t a great team but they are playing a Rockies team that is nearly the worst in baseball.
BAL/DET OVER 8: Both starting pitchers have been terrible as of late and neither has a top bullpen.
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