9/27/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Let’s take a look at today’s best bets:
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Yankees are just one win away from locking up their spot in the playoffs and the division. They tried and failed last night to do this as the Blue Jays didn’t allow that to happen on their home turf. They will try again tonight against one of the Blue Jays’ most susceptible starting pitchers.
That starting pitcher for the Jays is Jose Berrios. On the season he has a 5.27 ERA and a 5.24 xERA. He has been slightly better at home this season with a 3.98 ERA in the Rogers Centre, where he will be tonight. In his three starts vs the Yankees this year he has gone a total of 17 innings and has allowed ten earned runs. The Yankees offense has fared well lately against right-handed pitchers like Berrios. They are fourth in baseball with a wOBA of .331 in all of baseball.
On the other side for the Yankees is Jameson Taillon and his 3.90 ERA and 4.13 xERA. Taillon has been worse on the road this year as he has a 4.42 ERA away from Yankees Stadium. He will be facing a determined Toronto team as the Yankees did last night. The Toronto offense he will be facing has been hot as of late with an even better wOBA than the Yankees have against righties, which Taillon is. They have a .333 wOBA and overall offensively have a 121 wRC+ which is 2nd best in all of baseball over the past month.
Both teams still have motivation to win tonight, each offense is thriving, and each starting pitcher is susceptible. There is no guarantee the Jays can hold off the Yankees another day so we are going to take the OVER total runs in this game as each offense should get to the opposing pitcher.
TOTAL RUNS OVER 7.5, -120.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
At this point in the baseball season, the best way to bet the slate is to find a team with motivation to win versus a team without it. That is what we have here as the Phillies are still playing to lock in their wild-card playoff spot while the Cubs are long out of the race.
To keep the playoff hope alive the Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the bump tonight. On the season Wheeler has a 2.98 ERA and a 3.07 xERA. He has faced this Cubs team once already this year and in that outing, he went seven innings and allowed just one Cub to cross the plate while striking out six. That was around two months ago and since then the Cubs’ offense has struggled. In the past month, the Cubs offense ranks 24th overall with a wRC+ of 92, and against righties like Wheeler, they rank 25th in baseball with a wOBA of .288.
On the other side for the Cubs is Marcus Stroman who carries a 3.80 ERA and a 4.10 xERA on the season. Stroman will be pitching at home tonight in the not-so-friendly confines of Wrigley Field where he has struggled. At home, this season Stroman has a 6.31 ERA compared to his 2.06 ERA on the road. Today he will be facing a Phillies offense that has been a top-five unit in the past month while fighting for the right to stay in the playoff race. They have been the 4th best offense overall and the 2nd best against righties like Stroman with a .334 wOBA.
Both teams have equally as bad bullpens over the past month. With that as a wash and the Phillies with a far better offense and starting pitcher, take the Phillies to continue their push to the playoffs and win this game tonight.
PHI ML, -165.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
This matchup also features one team pushing to lock up a playoff spot and another well beyond out of the race. The Mets are battling with the Braves for their division title and the bye in the first round of the playoffs while the Marlins haven’t sniffed the playoff race in months.
To continue the trek forward to the division title the Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound. On the year Carrasco has a 3.79 ERA and a 4.05 xERA. He will be pitching at home tonight where he has fared better this season. At home, he has a 3.21 ERA compared to a 4.57 ERA on the road. He is familiar with this Marlins offense as he has faced off with them four times already this season. In those starts, he has totaled 20.2 innings and allowed just six earned runs.
On the other side for the Marlins will be Pablo Lopez with his 3.88 ERA and 4.02 xERA on the season. He has not fared well as of late, as in September so far he has a 5.57 ERA. His last time out against these Mets 17 days ago he went 3.2 innings and allowed eight earned runs. The Mets have the BEST offense over the past month with a wRC+ of 123.
This is a massive mismatch not only in team construction but in motivation to win this game. The Mets will come out hot and ensure they stay atop their division. Take the Mets to win on the run line, -1.5, in this one as it should be a cakewalk.
NYM RL -1.5, +100.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
LAD ML: Too cheap of a price for the Dodgers as the Padres bullpen should lose them this game.
CHW ML: Both teams are essentially out of it but the Sox are playing much better right now.
OAK RL, +1.5: This is a more even matchup than it appears, take the runs and the win.
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