9/28/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
These teams face off in a potential preview of a playoff matchup just a week from now. The Rays are still fighting to keep their wild card spot while the Guardians clinched their division championship earlier this week. Cleveland might be low on motivation right now but they will want to show up tonight to show they can hang with the Rays in the playoffs.
To show what they’ve got tonight the Rays are sending out Tyler Glasnow to start the game. He will be making his first start of the season in a warmup for a playoff run. He likely will not last long in this game due to just getting stretched out but he will be taking on a Cleveland offense that has been hot as of late. In the past 11 games, the Guardians are averaging 6.3 runs per game. In the past two weeks, they rank eighth overall offensively with a 113 wRC+ (average is 100).
Backing up Glasnow is the Rays pen who over the past month is the seventh-best unit in the league. But, over the past week, they have started to fall apart. In the past seven days, the Rays bullpen has a 5.20 ERA, good for the 11th worst in baseball.
The Guardians have had no trouble scoring as of late and have the majority of their starting lineup going tonight after a day off after clinching their playoff spot. Take the Guardians to surpass their team total of 3.5 tonight and avoid worrying about who ends up winning this one.
CLE TT O 3.5, +115.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
The Atlanta Braves are inching closer to finally surpassing the Mets who are atop their division standings after chasing them all season. The team in the way right now is at the bottom of those standings and are looking to play spoiler tonight.
That team is the Nationals and they will send young starter Josiah Gray to the mound tonight. On the season Gray has a 5.17 ERA and a 4.28 xERA. He had a promising start to the year but has fallen off as of late. He will be pitching at home tonight where he hasn’t fared well. While at home he has a 6.57 ERA in 61.2 innings pitched. In this current month of September, he has thrown a total of 19.1 innings and in those outings, he has an 8.38 ERA.
On the other side for the Braves is Jake Odorizzi with his 4.61 ERA and 4.10 xERA. He also has not had the best of luck in the past month or while on the road this year. He will be away from home tonight and in pitching in that scenario he has a 5.01 ERA in 59.1 innings. In September over 12.1 innings pitched he has a 9.49 ERA.
The Braves’ offense is on a tear right now and even the lowly Nationals are in the top half of the league while hitting off of right-handed pitchers, which Odorizzi is. Both starters should give up plenty of runs today, and because of that, we are going to take the over in this game which is set at 8.5. Take the over and enjoy the fireworks.
Total Runs OVER 8.5, -105.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
The hottest NL West divisional rivalry continues tonight between a Dodgers team that has locked up everything they needed to before the playoffs and the Padres who need to keep winning to keep their wild card spot. The Padres took game one of this series last night and that cannot leave a good taste in the Dodgers’ mouth, they will be looking to play spoiler for the Padres tonight.
Heading to the mound tonight for the Dodgers will be Cy Young hopeful, Julio Urias. On the season he has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.70 xERA. He will be on the road today in San Diego and when pitching away from Dodger stadium he is even better as he has a 2.07 ERA. On top of that, in September thus far in 24.1 innings pitched he carries a 1.85 ERA. He has faced this Padres team this year already and in 18 innings against them, he has only allowed four total runs.
On the other side for the Padres will be Joe Musgrove and his 3.12 ERA and a 3.29 xERA. He has faced this Dodgers team twice already this year and in those 12.1 innings, he allowed seven earned runs. This Dodgers offense he is facing is sixth overall in the past month with a wRC+ of 112 (100 is average). Backing up Musgrove out of the San Diego bullpen is not much support at all, as the group has a 4.81 ERA over the past month.
The Dodgers, even though they have nothing left to play for until the playoffs, still don’t like losing and especially to a division rival like they did yesterday. With their best starter on the mound, a top offense, and a superior bullpen, they should have no problem evening up this series tonight.
LAD ML, -140.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
DET ML: The Tigers hit lefties well, the Royals lefty has a 7.13 ERA this month.
MIL ML: The Brewers are still fighting for a playoff spot and just saw their division rival celebrate a division title in their building. Cardinals may have some players sitting and the Brewers have the motivation.
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