9/29/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
These two future playoff teams face off in game three of this series tonight after each side managed to win one game so far. Both have ended in one-run games and tonight should be no different as each side is fighting to show the other that they are the superior team when playoff time comes.
Starting on the mound tonight for the Rays is Jeffrey Springs. On the season he has a 2.56 ERA and a 3.38 xERA. He has had a fantastic season thus far, but in his one start versus Cleveland, he took the loss. He never tends to last long in games and in his five innings this season versus the Guardians he gave up 3 runs. This time around he will be taking on a Guardians’ offense that has averaged north of six runs per game in the past two weeks and have won eight of their last nine games.
On the other side for the Guardians is Cal Quantrill, another big surprise of the season as Springs has been. On the year Quantrill has a 3.49 ERA and a 4.43 xERA. He has yet to face this Rays team this season but over the past month overall, the Rays have struggled against right-handed pitchers like Quantrill. In the past 30 days, they are 23rd in baseball against righties with a .289 team wOBA.
These teams are evenly matched here, but the Guardians are the hot hand right now, have the better offensive matchup, and over the past week have a team bullpen ERA of 1.69 compared to the Rays’ 3.38. Take the Guardians to take game three of this series.
CLE ML, +105.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
In these late stretches of a long baseball season, one of the keys to betting on the sport is to see who has motivation left to keep playing hard. The Mariners are fighting to stay in their wild card spot and make the playoffs for the first time in 20+ years. The Rangers have been officially eliminated from the race and understandably will slow down as the timeline on the season runs out for them.
To keep the hot streak going into the playoffs the Mariners will send lefty Marco Gonzales to the bump. On the season he has a 4.05 ERA and a 4.52 xERA. He has faced off with this Rangers team five times already this year. In those starts he has totaled 29.2 innings and allowed 21 runs (17 earned runs). In Gonzales’ last two starts overall he has allowed eight earned runs in just 11.1 innings pitched.
On the other side for the Rangers is Jon Gray with his 3.64 ERA and 3.48 xERA. He is also familiar with his opposition tonight as he has faced this Mariners team on two separate occasions this season. In those starts, he has allowed eight earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched. This Mariners offense has not cooled off since then either as they are the sixth-best offense overall in the past month with a 113 wRC+ (100 being average).
Both starters in this matchup have had their bright moments this season but both struggle against tonight’s opponent. Even if they do fare well to start the game the bullpens may not be much relief. The Mariners pen has an ERA over 5.00 in the past week and the Rangers is over 4.00. Take the OVER in this one as this seven figure is just too low for these two teams.
OVER 7, -110.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
The only motivation going around in this series is for pride as each team has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. The Giants have won the battle of pride so far this series as they have won the first two games so far as the Rockies have now lost seven of their last eight.
To start on the mound tonight for the Rockies to regain some face and end the series on a strong note will be Ryan Feltner. On the season thus far Feltner has an ERA of 5.91 and an xERA of 5.13. As poor as those numbers are he has been worse as of late. In September this far he has pitched 18.1 innings and holds a 6.38 ERA in that timeframe. While the Giants offense he is facing is nothing formidable, they are top ten in the past month against right-handed pitchers, which Feltner is.
On the other side for the Giants is Carlos Rodon with his minuscule 2.98 ERA and 2.72 xERA. He will be pitching at home in San Francisco tonight and while there he has thrived with a 2.08 ERA. He will be facing off with a Rockies’ offense that as mentioned before is struggling. Over the past month, they are dead last in offense overall with a wRC+ of 75 (100 being average). Backing him up out of the pen is a Giants relieving unit that ranks sixth in the past 30 days with a 3.05 ERA.
Neither of these teams are above average but at this point, the Giants are the far superior team with their ace on the mound, a better bullpen, and an offense that has a great matchup. Take the Giants to win the first half of this game on the run line.
SF F5 RL, -0.5, -145.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
MIL ML: They HAVE to win as many games as possible for the rest of the year and facing off against the Marlins tonight.
LAA RL, -1.5: Its Ohtani day and Irvin for OAK has been bad as of late.
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