9/7/22 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Nick Pivetta vs. Jeffrey Springs
The third and final game of this inter divisional series kicks off tonight after the surging Rays have taken the first two from the Red Sox. The Rays have been inching closer and closer to the top spot in their division and hope to keep the winning going while the Red Sox are just as close to giving up on the season.
To start the game for the Red Sox today, they will send Nick Pivetta to the mound. Pivetta on the season has a 4.37 ERA and and a 4.35 xERA, not a bad season line. But, against the Rays this season in 2 starts he has allowed 12 ER in just 10.2 innings pitched. The Rays offense he is facing today has been in the top ten offensively over the past month. They are 4th in overall offense with a wRC+ of 116 and against right handed pitchers like Pivetta they are 9th in wOBA with a .317. Backing up Pivetta out of the Boston bullpen will be the 26th rated bullpen over the past 30 days as they have a 5.35 ERA as a unit.
On the other side for the Rays pitching in Tampa Bay today is Jeffery Springs. On the season for Springs he has a 2.81 ERA and a 2.62 xERA. So far this year while pitching at home he has a 1.91 ERA and in the entire month of August he carried a 2.93 ERA. He has not fared particularly well this year against the Sox as in 2 starts he allowed 8 ER in 10 IP. Today’s Red Sox lineup is not the same lineup he faced earlier in the year though. Today’s lineup for the Sox should be without Xander Bogaerts (back spasms yesterday), JD Martinez (out since Saturday), and Franchy Cordero (IL as of yesterday).
With his recent success and a top 5 bullpen behind him (Rays bullpen ERA: 2.81) Springs should fare much better this time around against Boston. One team has something to fight for and the other has been out of it for a while and is currently bit by the injury bug. Take the Rays to complete the sweep tonight.
TB ML, -165.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Trevor Rogers vs. Baily Falter
Another inter division series continues tonight as the Marlins and Phillies will start game two of this set after the Phillies won 3-2 last night. The Phillies will be looking to beat up on the last place Marlins as they push to retain a wild card playoff spot.
For the Phillies tonight they will start with Baily Falter on the mound. On the season for Falter he carries a 4.08 ERA and a 4.56 xERA. He seems to have turned his season around as of late though as in the month of August he had a 2.45 ERA in 18.1 innings pitched. He will have the pleasure of taking on the Marlins offense today who has lost 7 in a row and 9 of 10. In the past month especially they have been lackluster at the plate. They rate dead last offensively over the past month in wRC+ with a rating of 64 (100 is league average) and against left handed pitchers like falter with a team wOBA of .226.
Trying to right the ship for the Marlins will be Trevor Rogers and his 5.57 ERA and 4.91 xERA. His month of August didnt go as well as Falters did though, he had a 5.84 ERA last month. He has faced this Philly offense 3 times already this year. He did not last long in those outings and they did not go particularly well. In those 3 starts he totaled 11.1 IP while allowing 15 ER. This Philly offense has not slowed since they last saw Rogers either. Over the past month they are 6th in baseball against left handed pitchers like Rogers with a team wOBA of .349.
Both sides have poor bullpens, as they both rank in the bottom 8 of the league in ERA, so we are going to avoid them entirely. We will focus todays bet on the advantage we know we have in the starting pitchers and offense. Take the Philllies to win the first 5 innings on the run line, -0.5, and cash this one early.
PHI F5 RL, -0.5, -110.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Cody Morris vs. Zack Greinke
While both of these teams may be slumping at the moment, one is far from out of the playoff race. The Guardians hope to take a few easy wins and skip town to stay at the top of the AL Central race while the Royals look to spoil the fun for Cleveland.
Starting on the mound for the Royals today is long time veteran Zack Greinke. On the year he carries a 4.14 ERA and a 5.25 xERA. Over the past month though he had a 3.00 august ERA in 21 innings pitched. Even better when at home in Kansas City, which is where he will be today, he has a 1.98 ERA on the entire season. He as faced this Guardians team twice already this year and in those starts he totaled 10.2 innings and gave up just 1 ER. As mentioned the Guardians are slumping at the moment, in the past month they are bottom 8 in the league offensively both overall and against right handed pitchers like Greinke.
On the other side starting for Cleveland is a pitcher you may not know much about, his name is Cody Morris. He is a bullpen arm for the Guardians and has only pitched 2 innings in the majors this year. He wont be around long in this game most likely, which is just fine for Cleveland. Their version of a bullpen game is superior to most as they have the BEST bullpen in baseball over the past month with an ERA of 1.73 over the past month. They get to face a Royals offense that is bottom 21st in baseball over the past 30 days with a wRC+ of 90.
This game features two sluggish offenses against one starting pitcher who has dominated that sluggish offense on one side and the other is a bullpen game featuring the best bullpen in baseball right now. Take the under at this high number of 8 total runs and feel free to skip watching this one, shouldn’t be a lot of fireworks tonight.
CLE/KC UNDER 8, -105.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
STL RL, -1.5: Montgomery as a Cardinal has been unhittable.
BAL ML: Ride the cash train as long as its going. O’s have beaten Manoah the last 2x out.
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