As The NFL Season Approaches, An Introduction To Sports Betting Might Be In Order
Sports Gambling Is Legal In More Than Three Dozen States. Online Wagers Can Be Placed In Over Three-Quarters Of Those States.
Most People Don’t Know What They Don’t Know. When It Comes To Making Wagers On Sports, What Most People Don’t Know Begins At The Very Start.
This is part one of a three-part series on sports wagers and professional sports.
There’s a great myth about odds and sports wagers. Most people seem to think that if Miami is favored by 3-points over Buffalo, that means the oddsmakers expect the Dolphins to top the Bills by three.
And that’s not true.
At least not completely.
The surroundings support the false narrative
The media, for one, supports the narrative:
“Vegas has the Dolphins by three.”
And, perhaps even worse:
“Home field advantage is worth three, making this essentially a pick ‘em.”
The subsequent conversations and discussions that follow all reinforce the idea that the point spread has been put in place solely as a way of gauging a painstakingly researched expected gap in the final score. If you will (my words): “If the oddsmakers say Dolphins favored by three, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score with a three-point Dolphins win.”
That’s not fully accurate. There’s a bit of business involved.
The tiny lie
When casinos set point spreads and over/under numbers and more, they are not predicting final scores. Instead, they are actually setting up something of a magic trick for the general public. Calling it a magic trick is actually not that far off, since the number of people that seem to fall for the distraction of a colorful unicorn dancing on the edge of the stage while holding a sign that says “plus 3” is roughly equal to the total of those that believe the spread is an indicator of how the game will play out.
The actual design of a point spread is to balance the value of the wagers on both potential outcomes. As a result, the point spread is set up not to say the Dolphins will win by three. It’s set to get as many bets and dollars on the Dolphins giving the three points as those that are placed on the Bills plus three points.
When gambling in a sports book, the wagers come with something a fee involved. The vigorish. The vig. The juice. This is that wonderful feature where on a game with a point spread, making the bet doesn’t get a straightforward 1:1 opportunity. A bit extra must be added on to place the wager. That’s the betting $110 to win $100 concept.
If the casino succeeds in it’s setting of the line, the wagers balance. (Score one for the unicorn.) Gambler A feels the Dolphins will win by more than 3 and places a $100 bet on Miami. (Actually, $110 to win $100.) Gambler B feels the Bills won’t lose by 3 or more and places a $100 bet on Buffalo. (Actually $110 to win $100.) The casino has collected $220 and will pay out $210 to the winner. (If a win, that bet takes home the original wager plus the winnings. $110 plus $100 equals $210, leaving the casino with a $10 profit.)
The bit of truth
There’s a belief that perception can become reality. In this case, it’s a bit of a slightly askew self-fulfilling prophecy. If the betting public doesn’t believe the narrative being presented, they will react to the point spread that doesn’t seem accurate. That can create a dangerous scenario where one side is getting the strong majority of action and the house is looking at a big win or a huge loss.
This creates an odd duality of sorts, where the quest to balance the wagers creates a scenario where the point spread does need to reflect something most feel is accurate. Still, the bigger reality goes even deeper.
How does the house win? Usually, by never being involved in the actual bet. The odds offered on wagers like money line bets, or the payoffs on parleys, are all exaggerated forms of the same trick. A grand design to even out the betting pool, prevent losses, and deliver the house advantage built-in with vigorish.
The leagues want the public to trust the integrity of the matches. The sportsbooks want the public to believe that the wagers are fair and regulated. Everyone wants a good, clean game. And make no mistake, everyone should view them as legitimate and without nefarious actions taking place behind the scenes.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t a small number of people trying to adjust the outcomes to their favor. That’s where the trouble resides. A failure to recognize what could happen creates environments where it may be easier to make it happen. Those blinders must be removed.
This article is part of a three-piece series on overall awareness of sports wagering and the potential for difficulties and issues from unfair play. None of these articles are intended, in any way, to suggest or argue that any leagues, organizations or personnel are presenting anything other than fair and legitimate competitions, with accurate and true results. Instead, as markets expand and the dollars wagered increase, the articles are meant to show that temptations and motivations for illegal and unfair activities have occurred previously, and have the potential to occur again with widespread gambling availability and acceptance.
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