Best Round-One Picks In Fantasy Football 2024
Even in the first round, some players are great value picks. Here are two players to keep your eye on if you are picking in the middle to end of the first round of your fantasy drafts.
(Pick 1.05) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
It was not all that long ago that Justin Jefferson was the consensus top receiver and overall player to own in fantasy football. Jefferson had a legendary start to his career, putting up the most receiving yards in a player's first four seasons. He finished his 2020 rookie season as the WR6 in PPR leagues and as the WR4 and WR1 the following seasons.
His 2023 season was one to forget, being limited to only 64 receptions, 1,074 yards, and five touchdowns in 10 games, finishing as the WR33. Now, coming off of injury and being without Kirk Cousins, Jefferson can be found at a slight discount. He has as good of a chance as anyone to finish as the WR1 and is the last wide receiver in the elite tier that can be selected. After him, there is a slight drop off in skill and value.
What makes Justin Jefferson a valuable pick at the 1.05 is that he is quarterback-proof. Justin Jefferson returned fully from injury in week 15 and played with Nick Mullens at quarterback for the rest of the season. Those next four weeks, he brought in a finish at WR22, WR7, WR34, and WR1. In that short sample size, he averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game. Only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb averaged more.
In those same four weeks, Justin Jefferson never saw less than 10 targets and five receptions. In 2024, he should be getting a lot of looks yet again, especially with the state of the receiving room in Minnesota. Both TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison are expected to miss time, Hockenson due to injury, and Addison for legal concerns. It will be the Justin Jefferson show in 2024.
No one will argue against Justin Jefferson being regarded as a top receiving option for fantasy purposes, but to get a player of his caliber at pick number five is awesome value. The worst-case scenario is Jefferson gets average quarterback play and finishes toward the bottom of the top five wide receivers. But, if either JJ McCarthy or Sam Darnold can put together a solid season, Jefferson can easily regain the title of WR1 in fantasy football.
(Pick 1.09) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Breece Hall is being drafted as the third overall running back after finishing the season as the RB2, behind only Christian McCaffery. While Hall had 100 fewer fantasy points than McCaffery, his fantasy season was still impressive due to the circumstances he was playing under. The Jets offense was ranked 29th in overall scoring and struggled to move the ball down the field the whole season. Even though touchdowns were few, Hall still averaged 17.09 PPR points per game.
Breece Hall was pretty much the whole offense for the Jets last season. He was the leading rusher (993 rushing yards and five touchdowns) and the second-leading receiver on the team (76 receptions, 591 yards, and four touchdowns). His four receiving touchdowns would also be the best on the team, narrowly beating Garrett Wilson’s three touchdowns. Hall’srushing and receiving totals in 2023 were impressive, but he has a chance to elevate his production to another level now with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Even returning from an Achilles injury, 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers will be the best quarterback to play for the Jets in a long time. The offense should be better with Rodgers being on the field. Rodgers has not had less than 3,500 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in any full season he has played in his entire career. The last time the Jets had a quarterback with passing production like that, was Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015. It is almost a guarantee that the Jets offense will gain more yards and score more touchdowns than many of the past seasons.
Assuming the Jets offense drastically improves from last season, Breece Hall’s numbers should also. Hall was ranked only 39th among running backs in red-zone carries and tied for 21st in rushing touchdowns. A healthy Breece Hall with more scoring opportunities is mouth-watering. If he can finish as the RB2 with only five rushing touchdowns, imagine how good he will be when he starts to get valuable goal-line carries.
What gave Breece Hall the edge against many other running backs last season was his receiving ability. As stated earlier, he was second on the Jets in both receptions (76) and receiving yards (591). Those numbers would put him first in the league among running backs. While it is unlikely he will record another 70 reception season, his receiving ability gives him a higher ceiling than a traditional pure-rusher would.
If the Jets offense is good this year, there is no reason Breece Hall cannot finish as the overall RB2 and even give Christian McCaffery a run for his money as the top fantasy running back. If the Jets offense is not good, Hall can still easily be a top-three fantasy back. Hall has been borderline elite in a bad offense and will be unbelievable this season if the Jets have a good offense. He has the chance to become a fantasy difference-maker at the running back position and is a great pick toward the end of the first round of fantasy drafts.
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