Bold NFL Week Three Picks Against The Spread
Believe it or not, the third week of the 2023 NFL Season is already here. It truly feels like yesterday we kicked off the season in Kansas City and now we kind of have a feel about how the season will play out. Teams like the Dolphins, Commanders, and Cowboys have played really well and have surprised so far, while others such as the Chargers, Vikings and Bears are still searching for their first win of the season, which the first two actually play each other this week.
Last Week's Picks
Last week I had another .500 record with my best correct picks being Dolphins over the Patriots on the road and the Buccaneers winning at home versus the Bears. My worst pick of the week was believing that Sean Peyton would let the Broncos fall to 0-2, which not even Nathaniel Hackett did last year. But the Broncos lost in a close game, which ended on a missed two-point conversion to tie the game.
There are a lot of matchups this week that could possibly be blowouts including Bears-Chiefs and Cowboys-Cardinals, while 2-0 teams such as Atlanta and Washington will get big tests versus teams with winning records last season.
Thursday Night Football
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Two playoff teams from last season duel in The Bay as the struggling New York Giants head to Santa Clara to face the undefeated 49ers. San Francisco has cruised to 2-0 with big wins versus the Steelers and Rams. They have scored 30 points in both contests while the 49ers defense has remained one of the best. Meanwhile the Giants were shutout 40-0 in Week 1 to the Cowboys and had to come back down 20-0 to the Cardinals, who are expected to be the worst team in the league.
New York is celebrating getting in the win column, but a tough road test in San Francisco doesn't bode well for the G-Men. The 49ers should head to 3-0.
Pick: 49ers win 34-17 and cover the spread -10
Sunday Slate
Denver Broncos (+7) at Miami Dolphins
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Dolphins have won close games against the Chargers and Patriots where the offense had big games, while the Broncos have lost to the Raiders and Commanders by a combined three points. Sean Peyton is still looking for his first win as the Broncos head coach but has to leave the Mile High for Miami. Meanwhile Tua and the Dolphins have one of the best offenses in the league while Vic Fangio's defense has improved. Miami should start 3-0 for the second straight year.
Pick: Dolphins win 30-24 but fail to cover the spread -7
Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings
Who would have expected that the Chargers and Vikings, two playoff teams a year ago, would be battling for the first win for either team in Week 3. Both teams are 0-2 after rough starts which has left the fanbases frustrated. After being 11-0 in one score games last season, the Vikings are 0-2 in one score games so far in 2023. I will give the edge to the Chargers as this team has too much talent to be 0-3.
Pick: Vikings fall 30-28 and fail to cover the spread -1
Sunday Night Spread
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders
Another one-point spread in Week 3 as the Steelers head to Paradise, NV for a matchup against the Raiders. Pittsburgh took this duel last season and should be able to cover and take it this week as well. Although the Raiders have the more experienced quarterback in Jimmy G, their other stars are up for concern. With Davante Adams not fully healthy and Josh Jacob's early struggles, this could be a game Mike Tomlin fights hard for and takes it.
Pick: Steelers win a hard-fought 23-20 contest and cover the spread -1
The Rest Of Week Three
Ravens 31, Colts 27 (+8)
Browns 34, Titans 30 (+4.5)
Lions 26 (-3), Falcons 21
Packers 27 (-3), Saints 23
Jaguars 38 (-9), Texans 12
Patriots 18 (-2), Jets 15
Bills 32, Commanders 29 (+6.5) - Lock of the Week ATS
Seahawks 28 (-4.5), Panthers 23
Cowboys 41 (-12.5), Cardinals 20 - Surepick
Chiefs 30 (-12.5), Bears 9
Eagles 33, Buccaneers 31 (+6.5)
Toss Up: Rams at Bengals (-5.5)
Bengals cover if Burrow plays
Rams upset if Burrow is out
Over/Under Lock of the Week:
Bills-Commanders over 45.5
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