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Brandon Aiyuk Will Produce For Fantasy Wherever He Plays

Last year, Brandon Aiyuk had his most efficient season in the NFL, putting up 1,342 yards and 7 touchdowns off of 75 receptions. He finished as WR14 in half-ppr formats, which was his career-high. The 49ers and Aiyuk attempted to work on an extension this off-season, but the two sides were too far apart to reach a deal.


Aiyuk has since requested a trade, opted to skip the 49er's mandatory minicamp last month, and took on roughly $100,000 in fines for that decision. He has not participated in practice despite showing up for training camp. Aiyuk is reported to want an average of at least $30 million per year, and with him being just 26 years old, he likely wants a more extended contract with solid guaranteed money.


Despite Aiyuk requesting a trade, the 49ers have held strong in their statements that they are not trading him, forcing him to play out on his 5th-year extension this year. Despite opinions on whether Aiyuk deserves that type of contract, he has proven to be an impact player. Last season, Aiyuk had the second most yards per reception (17.9) behind only George Pickens. He was also 3rd in Yards Per Route Run, (min 70 targets) which is one of statistics that has the highest correlation with consistent fantasy production.


Jaylen Waddle and Rashee Rice were the only wide receivers who cracked the top 10 in this statistic without finishing in the top 10 wide receivers in fantasy. Aiyuk posted immaculate separation numbers in Matt Harmon's Reception Percentage, clearing the 91st percentile in his success rate vs. man, zone, and press coverage. He also had an above-average success rate on every route on the route tree.


Brock Purdy was also the most accurate quarterback on attempts of 20+ air yards, completing 63.8% (min 20 attempts). That was the highest completion percentage in this range, dating back through 2010. The average of the leaders in this category over the last 13 years is 52.2%. Ordinarily when players post numbers this efficient we would expect some regression, however, the 49ers roster is one of the best in the league and didn't change much from last year. Aiyuk's ADP is currently 3.02, and WR13 is off the board.


Our consensus projections for Aiyuk in the 2024 season would be: 86 receptions, 1302 yards, 8 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.


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