Breece Hall Has RB1 Overall Upside For Fantasy
Breece Hall offers workhorse usage with explosiveness. We saw him display this in his rookie year before his injury, with 6.9 yards per touch. He returned in his sophomore year and played every game, but he was less explosive with 5.3 yards per touch, even though his usage early in the season was lighter due to ramping him back up.
He still compiled 299 touches, 1585 yards, and 9 touchdowns on a lightened workload from an injury on an awful Jets team. Aaron Rodgers is back, and they added Olu Fashanu and Tyron Smith to the offensive line. Defenses won’t be able to stack the box all game, and Hall is arguably the team's second most reliable pass catcher. Rodgers is 40 and coming off a season-ending injury, so dump-offs and the screen game should factor heavily into their game plans.
Last season, he had 95 targets, averaging almost 6 a game, and caught 80% of them with Zach Wilson throwing them. Rodgers should be throwing more quality targets, so Hall may end up with even more than 76 receptions. Another year removed from his injury gives Hall the potential to get back to his rookie-year yards per touch with an increased usage rate. 350 touches and 6 yards per touch are not out of the question.
That would be 2,100 total scrimmage yards with a double digit touchdown upside since the offense should be much better, All of this comes with him being only 23 years old. Dynasty startup Superflex smash pick in the second round, easy top 3 pick in one QB league (dynasty or redraft). Year 3 breakout for a player who had 1585 and 9 last year.
Our consensus projections for Hall in the 2024 season are 258 carries for 1,336 yards and 13 touchdowns. In the receiving game, his consensus projection is 66 receptions for 517 yards and 5 touchdowns.
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