Caleb Williams Rookie Year Could Break Fantasy
Caleb Williams walks into the best situation a QB selected at number 1 overall has on paper, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, DeAndre Swift, and Cole Kmet. The only thing that could be an issue is coaching; Shane Waldron has run underwhelming offenses with great pieces in Seattle. He couldn't figure out how to get JSN worked into the equation with the Seahawks, which doesn't bode well for Odunze at the beginning of year one.
It also feels like Waldron left a lot of production on the bone with DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker. Waldron gets credit for revamping Geno Smith's career, even though Dave Canales led that charge before doing the same thing with Baker Mayfield. Caleb Williams is an elite talent with an elite supporting cast. The fact that the coordinator is just subpar could be the only thing slowing him down.
Williams steps into the NFL with elite production over three years; he completed 735 of his 1,099 pass attempts (66.9%) for 10,082 yards (9.2 yards per attempt, which would be in the top 10 in the NFL), with 93 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He also rushed the ball 289 times for 966 yards, averaging 3.3 a carry, with another 27 rushing touchdowns.
He's the unquestioned starter and should be able to translate his game to the big leagues with a supporting cast like this. The offensive line isn't the best, but they should be able to stay competent enough to give Caleb the time to hit one of his many weapons.
It is back to another era, but Fields had weekly finishes of QB8 overall in 14 out of 30 games played; WIlliams is the better prospect and has all the tools he needs to continue putting up QB1 numbers early and often in this offense.
Our consensus projections for Williams in the 2024 season would be: 385 completions, 4443 yards, 29 touchdowns, 11 interceptions through the air, and 48 carries for 290 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.
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