I Like The Iowa Hawkeyes' Chances To Make The College Football Playoff
We have two months before college football starts, but I'm going to start the hot takes now. Iowa's chances of making the CFP aren't as insane as you may think. Even with the Big Ten additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington this year, I still think Iowa can sneak in. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the FBS. 2024 will mark his 26th year as Iowa's Head Coach. Is this the first year he'll make the college football playoffs?
The Offense Vs. The Defense In 2023
I don't think Iowa will compete for a National Championship this year. Their defense is championship-worthy, but we all know the offense is not. Do you know what Iowa's offensive ranks were in 2023? Out of 133 Division I football teams, here's where they stood:
Iowa Offensive Ranks in 2023
Total Yards/Game: 234.6 yards (133rd)
Passing Yards/Game: 118.6 (130th)
Rushing Yards/Game: 115.9 (109th)
Points Per Game: 15.4 (132nd)
How is it possible to be that bad in the Big Ten offensively and still go 10-4? The answer: Defense. Phil Parker signed an extension a few off-seasons ago, but he should have a lifetime contract to coach this defense. Phil Parker deserves a blank check from the athletic department, and he should be able to write whatever number he wants. His defense is always elite, and outside of Tory Taylor, is the only reason Iowa football was watchable last year.
Iowa Defensive Ranks in 2023
Total Yards/Game: 282.5 (7th)
Passing Yards/Game: 170.7 (5th)
Rushing Yards/Game: 111.8 (17th)
Points Per Game: 14.8 (4th)
With nine defensive starters returning to this illustrious defense, one can assume this unit will be elite again. The question is, will they be able to handle the new teams in the conference?
Lincoln Riley's teams are always offensive powerhouses with high-level quarterbacks, Washington is coming off a National Championship appearance, and Oregon is almost always fighting for a playoff spot. A slight step back is expected, but I think Iowa can maintain its stature as one of the best defenses in the country.
I don't know if I've ever seen a more polarizing ranking between offense and defense. Watching Iowa play football in 2023 was indeed a spectacle. In every game, you knew the under would hit, Iowa's defense would be fantastic, and the offense would find a new and creative way to score maybe 10 points. Punting was usually the most exciting part of the game. Tory Taylor, a GREAT fourth-round pick by the Chicago Bears in 2024, has a massive boot on him and was an excellent weapon for Iowa last season.
However, it's a new year, and Brian Ferentz is gone. Everyone knew "The Road to 325" was cooked from the moment of its inception. Tim Lester is now the offensive coordinator, former Western Michigan head coach, and analyst for the Packers last year. The bar is set so low that I don't know how you possibly can't get better on offense. Let's try and make it in the 20s for PPG, please.
Why Iowa Can Make The College Football Playoff
Iowa has to be a more complementary team for this to occur in 2024. But I do think there is a possibility that it will happen this year. It's almost impossible that Iowa's offense is that bad again. All they need to do is be average, and Iowa should at least be in the mix at the end of the year to make the new 12-team CFP. It would be so funny if Iowa continues to score 10 points a game and somehow sneaks in. That would be Big Ten football at its finest.
Let's call a spade a spade and count the "automatic bids" into the CFP:
Georgia
Ohio State
Texas
That leaves nine spots open to make the CFP. As for how many teams from each conference will make it, that is to be determined. But for the Big Ten, arguably the most competitive conference in college football (as well as the home of the reigning National Champions), the committee will want at least four teams in from the Big Ten, four teams from the SEC, three teams from the ACC, and maybe one school from whatever the Big 12's name is now. You have at least six teams that could deserve a playoff spot in the Big Ten.
Michigan
Penn State
Oregon
Iowa
Washington
Oregon
The Schedule
All of those teams could realistically make the CFP. Iowa again has a cupcake schedule compared to the rest of the Conference. I mean, look at this:
October 5th at Ohio State might be the only loss in the regular season. Meaning they'd finish 11-1. That won't happen, but it is nice to think about. I will happily take this schedule as we do not have to play Michigan, Oregon, or USC this year. If we played one of those teams, I would have no faith, but you can only play those on your schedule. The haters will be sick if we win ten or more.
I will give a game-by-game preview once we are closer to the season starting, but I will keep my optimism high for right now. It can be done, and I will keep the faith throughout the season. I'm hoping we can secure that 12 seed.
Follow me on Twitter: @BobbyMagnus3
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