Chiefs Vs. Titans: Three Critical Matchups For Week Nine
The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) play host to the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans (5-2) for a Sunday Night Showdown in Arrowhead. The Chiefs are coming off a bye week, so they will have extra time to prepare and get healthier at critical defensive positions. The Titans are riding a five-game winning streak led by their All-Universe running back, Derrick Henry. There are several pivotal matchups for this primetime competition. Here are the three that I will be keeping an eye on.
Chiefs Front Seven Vs. Titans Rushing Attack
The Titans offense is led first and foremost by running back Derrick Henry. Henry currently leads the AFC in rushing yards with 755 on the year and is coming off a dominating Week Eight performance against the Houston Texans. Henry carried the rock 32 times to the tune of 219 yards and two scores and was generally unstoppable.
Two more Angry Runs scepters added to the trophy case…you know the vibes 😤💪@KyleBrandt | @gmfb pic.twitter.com/z8y09pl461 — Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 29, 2022
Letting Derrick Henry eat has been the Titans game plan since he became the bell cow running back in 2017 and that has not changed coming into 2022. Questions were swirling coming into the year about whether Henry’s immense workload would start to wear on him, especially after missing nine games in 2021 with a broken bone in his foot. Those questions seemed to be answered, at least for now.
The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game ranked third in the NFL in rushing defense, but they haven’t been perfect. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs ran for 154 yards in Week Five. San Francisco running back Jeff Wilson Jr. ran for 7.7 yards per carry before the Chiefs could pull away in a 44-23 Week Seven victory.
Derrick Henry is a much higher caliber running back than either Jacobs or Wilson, Jr, and it will be crucial for the Chiefs to contain if they want to stay in control of this game. If the Titans can keep this game closer than the 12-point spread would indicate, it will be because Derrick Henry has been allowed to run wild.
Chiefs Third Down Offense Vs. Titans Third Down Defense
Despite the Chiefs having the clear edge offensively, this game may come down to converting on third down. The Chiefs are the highest-scoring team in the NFL at 31.9 points per game. That number is being fueled, in part, by their remarkable efficiency on third down at 51.9%, good for second in the league. The Chiefs consistently put themselves in many third and manageable situations due to their offensive game script. They will have to keep staying ahead of the sticks to keep their defense fresh and keep Derrick Henry on the sideline.
Chiefs' offense: * 447 total yards * 9.5 yards per play * 5-of-6 on third down * 4-of-5 in the red-zone NFL's No. 1 offense (per DVOA) taking the No. 2 defense to the shed. — Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) October 23, 2022
The Titans have struggled on defense, giving up the second-most passing yards in the league, but they are stout in third-down situations. The Titans have only allowed 27.8% of third downs to be converted, which is the best mark in the NFL. Tennesse’s goal will be to get Kansas City into third and long situations. That will activate pass rushers Bud Dupree and Denico Autry, who have combined for eight sacks. If the Titans defense can get off the field quickly against the high-flying Chiefs offense, this game can get uncomfortable fast for Chiefs fans.
Chiefs Rushing Attack Vs. Titans Front Seven
The Titans, in Week One, gave up 164 yards for 9.1 yards per carry and a touchdown against Saquan Barkley and the New York Giants. Since then, Tennessee has not allowed anyone to score on the ground or rush for over 70 yards and is ranked fourth in the league in rushing defense. They have been forcing teams to become one-dimensional, which has been instrumental during their five-game winning streak.
The Chiefs are already primarily focused on throwing the ball all over the yard, as they rank second in the NFL in passing. The rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired, however. The Chiefs rank in the bottom ten in rushing yards per game which led to a switch at RB1.
Isiah Pacheco took over as the lead running back in Week Seven’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The switch was ineffective, as neither Pacheco nor Clyde Edwards-Helaire could break the 50-yard marker. One of those two running backs will have to be much more effective against the Titans front seven to avoid becoming too one-dimensional and allowing the Titans pass rush to tee off on Patrick Mahomes.
The Final Word
The Kansas City Chiefs are 12-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans. Kansas City has the better offense led by a much better quarterback. They are coming off a bye, so they have had plenty of time to prepare. The world knows that the Titans offense revolves solely around Derrick Henry, so if the Chiefs can contain him, there should not be much of a problem.
Of course, some people thought that would be the case against another AFC South team that the Chiefs were heavily favored against, and look what happened there. If the Chiefs come out with their A-game and can slow Derrick Henry down, they should be walking away with a prime-time victory. If the Chiefs fail to show up, history may repeat itself.
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