Chris Godwin's Formational Shift Will Impact Fantasy Value
Last year, Chris Godwin ran under 60% of his routes from the slot for the first time since 2018. Most of Godwin’s numbers were relatively unaffected by the change except Godwin’s receptions. In 2022 and 2021, Godwin averaged 101 receptions, whereas Godwin recorded just 83 receptions last year. Heading into 2024, multiple reports have stated that Godwin will revert to a full-time role in the slot in the new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen’s offense.
Coen has spent four seasons in the Rams organization as the assistant wide receivers coach, assistant quarterbacks coach, and most recently, the offensive coordinator. The hope is that Coen brings over some of that Sean McVay magic that he has had the chance to experience firsthand in his time with the Rams. Last season, the Buccaneers were 25th in the NFL in pre-snap motion, while the Rams were third.
The top 5 teams in pre-snap motion each finished in the top 10 scoring offenses last season. Bringing in a new OC was not the only change the Bucs made this off-season. They also improved their offensive line by drafting OT Graham Barton out of Duke. This should help give Baker Mayfield more time in the pocket. Mayfield had the 6th most sacks of any QB in the league last year.
The Bucs also selected WR Jalen McMillan in the third round and RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the draft this year. They both made an impact in the passing game in college and should have a role in their rookie year; however, they will not likely eat into Godwin’s production. Godwin has averaged at least 7.5 targets per game in each of his last three seasons.
The one notable statistic Godwin has seen a decrease in each of his last five seasons is touchdowns. Last year, he had just 2 touchdowns despite playing all 17 games and having 16 red zone targets (18th most in the league). Godwin has had just 10 touchdowns in his last 3 seasons compared to 23 touchdowns in his first 3.
The slot wide receiver in Sean McVay’s system has always overperformed in the touchdown category, so if that trend continues in Coen’s system, Godwin could be a strong candidate to bounce back in 2024. His ADP is currently 6.12, and WR35 is off the board.
Our consensus projections for Godwin in the 2024 season would be: 97 receptions, 1138 yards, 6 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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