Christian Kirk Regains Fantasy WR1 Status On Jacksonville?
Christian Kirk was on pace for career highs in receptions and receiving yards last year before his season was cut short due to a groin injury he suffered in Week 13. His 17-game pace through Week 12 was 87 receptions for 1,176 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. He will have some new faces around him in 2024, though. Last season, his top competition in the Wide Receiver room was Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. Both have joined new teams this off-season.
The two leave behind exactly 200 targets in their absence. The Jaguars replaced Ridley and Jones with former Buffalo Bill, Gabe Davis, and incoming rookie Brian Thomas Jr.. Although the Jags invested a lot of money and high draft capital into these two players, Kirk's route participation and target share should remain relatively the same. The incoming Wide Receivers have a very different skill set than Kirk.
Kirk has played two seasons in Jacksonville and has run at least 71.3% or more of his routes from the slot. In the last two seasons, neither Davis nor Thomas Jr. have run more than 16.7% of their routes from the slot. Davis and Thomas Jr. are field stretchers, and this can be seen through their average depth of target (aDOT). Davis' aDOT was 15.6 yards, and Thomas' was 13.7 yards last year. Kirk's aDOT was 10.7 and 9.7 in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
With Davis and Thomas Jr. running primarily downfield routes, they are unlikely to absorb the 200 vacated targets left behind by Ridley and Jones. Evan Engram will likely regress from the career highs he posted last year. In 2023, Engram beat his career high by 28 targets, 41 receptions, and 197 yards. He also had just one season with more touchdowns than he did in 2023. This was likely due to Kirk being out roughly 6 games last season.
Kirk was a dominant separator last season and should have no problem demanding a significant target share this upcoming season. Last season, Kirk ranked 7th in win rate vs. man coverage (46.8% win rate) (per PlayerProfiler). The Jaguars have also been in the top 10 in pass attempts in Kirk's last two seasons. With them, the volume will be there.
This volume provides a stable floor for Kirk; however, the downside to his game is his week-to-week upside. In half-PPR formats last season, Kirk finished as a top-25 Wide Receiver in 7 of his 12 healthy games, but he finished inside the top 12 just once. Look for Kirk to put up stable WR2 numbers next season, but know that his ceiling is limited.
Our consensus projections for Kirk in the 2024 season would be: 88 receptions, 1092 yards, 6 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 3 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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