College Football Week One Best Bets
The opening weekend of the college football season did not disappoint, with a double-digit dog in Georgia Tech winning outright, Montana State completing a fourth-quarter 17-point comeback, and SMU narrowly surviving at Nevada.
Week one looks even better, with Clemson playing Georgia, Penn State traveling to West Virginia, Miami visiting Florida, Notre Dame making the trip to College Station against the Aggies, and USC and LSU meeting in Las Vegas for a game on Sunday.
With that being said, let's get into the picks.
Odds via FanDuel
College Football Week One Top Picks
North Carolina (-1.5) at Minnesota
Thursday, 7 PM CT, Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Money line: North Carolina (-120), Minnesota (+100)
Total: 50.5
Betting Trends
North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in its last four games.
Minnesota has covered the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at home.
North Carolina at Minnesota Prediction
This matchup is intriguing due to the line movement we've seen since Sunday. Minnesota originally opened as a 1.5-point favorite and now is a home dog at +1.5. I would be comfortable laying the points with the Golden Gophers at home, but you're telling me I can get them as home dogs? 'll take Minnesota +1.5 as a home dog.
Best Bet
Minnesota +1.5
Clemson vs Georgia (-13.5)
Saturday, 11 CT, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Money line: Georgia (-550), Clemson (+400)
Total: 49.5
Betting Trends
Each of Georgia’s last eight season openers has gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of Clemson’s last four season openers has gone UNDER the total points line.
Clemson at Georgia Prediction
I'm considering the game as a whole rather than picking a side. Clemson and Georgia have two of the nation's top defenses, and with the amount of turnover on Georgia's offense and the fact that I don't trust Clemson's offense, I'll take the under.
Best Bet
Clemson/Georgia Under 49.5
Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia
Saturday, 11 AM CT, Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
Money line: Penn State (-320), West Virginia (+255)
Total: 51.5
Betting Trends
West Virginia is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games against Big Ten teams.
Penn State is 6-0 against the spread in its last games against Big 12 teams.
Penn State at West Virginia Prediction
These two teams met last season, with Penn State winning decisively at home. While I believe West Virginia will take a step forward in year two under Neal Brown, I don't think it starts here. We saw the Nittany Lions defense hold down the Mountaineers' offense, converting only four of their fourteen third-down attempts and going 0/3 on fourth down as well. I'll take the road favorite, and I'm laying the points.
Best Bet
Penn State -8.5
Miami (-2.5) at Florida
Saturday, 2:30 PM CT, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Money line: Miami (-140), Florida (+116)
Total: 54.5
Betting Trends
Miami is 6-1 ATS against Florida in the last seven games.
Florida has lost 12 of its last 15 games against AP-ranked teams.
Miami at Florida Prediction
Stop me if you've heard this before, "The U is back," except this time, they are. Miami has all the pieces to make a run at the ACC title, landing quarterback Cam Ward in the transfer portal and wide receiver Xavier Restrepo back after a 1,000-yard receiving season. Most important for this game is the battle at the line of scrimmage; the Hurricanes have sack leader Rueben Bain Jr and added Tyler Baron in the portal, who finished with six sacks last season at Louisville. Pair that with the concerns on the offensive line for the Gators that allowed 39 sacks last season, ranking 115th nationally. That will be where the game is won, and I trust the Hurricanes more than the Gators on the line of scrimmage. Give me Miami -2.5.
Best Bet
Miami -2.5
Saturday, 6:30 PM CT, Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
Money line: Notre Dame (+122), Texas A&M (-146)
Total: 46.5
Saturday, 6:30 PM CT, Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
Money line: Notre Dame (+122), Texas A&M (-146)
Total: 46.5
Betting Trends
Texas A&M has covered the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams.
Notre Dame at Texas A&M Prediction
I believe Notre Dame is the better team, but playing in Kyle Field is never easy. Partnering with the intensive environment alongside first-year head coach Mike Elko, having first-hand experience with Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard from their time at Duke, gives the Aggies the advantage here.
Best Bet
Texas A&M -2.5
Sunday, 6:30 PM CT, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Money line: USC (+164), LSU (-200)
Total: 63.5
Betting Trends
Total went over in 16 of LSU's last 17 games
Total went over in 17 of USC's last 20 games
USC vs LSU Prediction
Both these teams are projected to have some of the top offenses in the country. They are expected to be better defensively, hiring new defensive coordinators after being abysmal last season. But how much better defensively can they be in one off-season? That's why the best way to attack this game is to bet the total, precisely the over. Lincoln Riley is one of the best offensive minds in the nation, and pair that with LSUs elite offensive line, giving first-year quarterback Garrett Nussmeier plenty of time to find his weapons downfield. The over is the play.
Best Bet
USC/LSU Over 63.5
There you have it. Those are my picks for the week one slate of the 2024 college football season. May the odds be ever in your favor.
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