Controversial College Football Win Totals: Fade The National Champs?
As the college football season draws closer, it's time to look into the future markets.
The college football landscape is undergoing significant changes, more so than ever, with the profound influence of conference realignment and the transfer portal. These shifts make specific teams overvalued in the betting market, a crucial insight for all sports bettors.
Here are five teams the oddsmakers are overvaluing, presenting a unique opportunity for savvy bettors to profit.
College Football Under-Win Totals
1. Mississippi State Under 3.5 Wins +136
Let me start by saying that I believe Mississippi State can be a respected SEC program under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby. However, in year one, things could be rough for the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs face one of the nation's most demanding schedules, featuring games at #4 Texas, #1 Georgia vs #25 Texas A&M, #16 Tennessee vs #7 Missouri, and #6 Ole Miss. It's hard to see them hitting this number in year one under Jeff Lebby.
2. Florida Under 4.5 Wins +122
I'm not sure the 85 Bears could survive Florida's 2024 schedule. Florida has to play six teams among the top 17 of the AP's season-ending Top 25.
They also ended last season on a six-game losing streak. The Gators will likely have a rough season, and Billy Napier's last season in Gainesville will likely be his last. Take the under on their win total.
3. Colorado Under 5.5 Wins +124
The Buffs have one of the top quarterbacks in the country, Shedeur Sanders, and superstar Travis Hunter, who impacts both sides of the ball.
Even with that, I still have questions for the Buffs, starting with an offensive line that gave up a school-record 56 sacks and a defense ranked bottom ten in total defense (453.3 yards per game) and scoring defense (34.8 points per game).
The Buffs' transition to the Big 12 schedule presents a formidable challenge. They have home games against tough opponents like North Dakota State, #20 Kansas State, #10 Utah, and #17 Oklahoma State, as well as demanding road trips to Nebraska, UCF at #11 Arizona, and #22 Kansas.
4. Oklahoma Under 7.5 Wins -110
I like what the Sooners have on the defense, with eleven of the top 13 tacklers back, but as we know, the SEC is a game of trenches, and the Sooners' replacing all five starters on the offensive line gives me hesitation about how they'll transition to the SEC.
They also have a tough schedule that includes games against #16 Tennessee, Auburn, #4 Texas, #6 Ole Miss, #7 Missouri, #9 Alabama, and at #12 LSU. The Sooners' transition to the SEC could be bumpy.
5. Michigan Under 8.5 Wins +122
After winning the National Championship, the Wolverines have a lot of production to replace, ranking 128th in returning production with only 36% returning. That group is headlined by quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, the whole offensive line, and the top two wide receivers, who are off to the NFL.
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