A Healthy Cooper Kupp Could Retain His Fantasy Glory
Cooper Kupp is coming off back-to-back seasons with 12 or fewer games played after having the best fantasy season in NFL history. The Wide Receiver will play this season at 31 years old and is one of the more divisive players in fantasy this year. Almost half of fantasy managers think Puka Nacua is taking over as the clear-cut WR1 on this team, and the other half are hopeful that Kupp can return to something reminiscent of his record-setting 2021 season.
Kupp was still a significant contributor on this team last year when healthy. He played 11 games with at least a 30% snap share or more. He has at least 10 points in half-PPR formats in 6 of those 11 games and over 20 points in 3 of 11 games. Kupp looked slightly impacted by his injuries last season, even after his return. This off-season, all of the reports surrounding the 7-year veteran receiver have all been positive.
McVay stated that he doesn’t think “anyone really understands the amount of things [Kupp was] working through last season,” with his injury and that Kupp has been able to build his body “from the ground up.” Even if Kupp was to lose a step physically, he never built his success off of his physical traits alone. Kupp is one of the best route runners in the NFL and creates tons of separation with his high NFL IQ and Sean McVay’s creative play calling. The Rams ran pre-snap motion on 43.4% of their plays, which ranked 2nd in the NFL. The top 5 teams in pre-snap motion finished in the top 10 scoring offenses last season.
The Rams also targeted the Wide Receiver position on 71.7% of their team pass attempts, which led the NFL by 3.5%. The Rams also decided not to bring in any big names this off-season that would threaten Kupp’s target share. They brought back Demarcus Robinson, brought in Tight End Colby Parkinson through Free Agency, and drafted Blake Corum to bolster their Running Back depth. The Rams only technically lost 6% of their teams targets, however, Tight End Tyler Higbee suffered an ACL injury in Week 17 last year.
Higbee’s status to return is officially unknown, but Sean McVay confirmed that Higbee is a “candidate to begin the season” on the PUP list. Higbee had 70 targets last season and was the third-most-targeted player on the Rams. Colby Parkinson will fill in for Higbee while he recovers, but he has never had more than 34 targets in a season. Kupp is most likely to be the beneficiary of some of these targets as he’s ran at least 55.6% of his routes from the slot in each season of his career. However, Kupp and Higbee aren’t the only key players on this team who have been impacted by injury. Stafford has also missed at least two games in the past two seasons.
After watching Bryce Perkins and Carson Wentz forced into game action the past two seasons, the Rams prioritized bringing in a veteran backup Quarterback. They signed Jimmy Garappolo on a one-year contract. This should help provide Kupp with at least a stable floor should Stafford go down to injury in 2024. Between Kupp’s ability to separate, the Rams' propensity to heavily target their Wide Receivers, and McVay’s creative play calling, Cooper Kupp has a WR2 floor with a ceiling of a low-end WR1 if the touchdown variance swings back in his favor.
Our consensus projections for Kupp in the 2024 season would be: 87 receptions, 1023 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 5 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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