Copa America 2024: Final Group Stage Matches - Who Will Advance
The final matches of the Group Stage at the Copa America commence on Saturday, June 29th, which will set up the quarterfinal lineup. The Copa America so far has not had the flair of Euro 2024, but there is still plenty to play for, and one can hope that the knockout stage will bring the excitement level up a notch or two. Here are the standings and what to expect Saturday through Tuesday:
GROUP A:
1. Argentina 6 pts.
2. Canada 3
3. Chile 1
4. Peru 0
(Saturday, June 29th)
8pm ET - Argentina v Peru
8pm ET - Canada v Chile
- Argentina has secured a place in the quarterfinals of the Copa. As such, they can rest players, including Lionel Messi, who has already been ruled out from playing on Saturday to give him time to heal a leg injury sustained against Peru. One important note on the Group Stage standings: unlike Euro 2024, the first tiebreaker between teams finishing on equal points is goal difference, followed by number of goals scored. Head-to-head, the primary tiebreaker at Euro 2024, is only the 4th tiebreaker at the Copa.
That means that Canada, even with a direct loss to Argentina, could finish in first place with a win over Chile and an Argentina loss. Canada would also have to make up a current 4-goal differential with Argentina as well. Argentina's player pool is too deep for Peru to realistically get all 3 points here.
- Canada vs Chile is for all the marbles. No 3rd place advancement at the Copa. Canada only needs a draw to advance, but Chile is a dangerous opponent, and this match could end up being a classic with everything at stake.
GROUP B
1. Venezuela 6 pts.
2. Ecuador 3
3. Mexico 3
4. Jamaica 0
(Sunday, June 30th)
8:00pm ET - Jamaica vs Venezuela
8:00pm ET - Mexico vs Ecuador
- Jamaica only has pride to play for as they are officially eliminated from advancing to the quarterfinals. Venezuela's play has been a major surprise at the Copa America. Defeating both Ecuador and Mexico has put them in clear control of the group. They only need a draw to secure the top spot. Any team playing just for pride can spring a surprise, but witnessing a very strong Venezuelan defense this Copa, it's hard to see Venezuela finishing anywhere but first in the group.
- Mexico vs Ecuador should be a classic. State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona will be rocking. Mexico's last match at the SoFi Stadium in California brought in over 72,000 fans. State Farm's capacity is just under that but should be full. Ecuador holds the goal-difference advantage, so a draw sees Mexico go home from the tournament. The loss to Venezuela brings their quality into question, but I have a feeling Mexico digs deep to find a win here.
GROUP C
1. Uruguay 6 pts.
2. U.S.A. 3
3. Panama 3
4. Bolivia 0
(Monday, July 1st)
9:00pm ET - Bolivia vs Panama
9:00pm ET - U.S.A. vs Uruguay
- Bolivia vs Panama looks straightforward - at least on paper. Bolivia has not looked good in their 2 losses. They are all but mathematically eliminated from advancing. Their -7 goal difference means that even a win over Panama will more than likely be 'too little, too late'.
- There is so much at stake in the match between the US and Uruguay. As hosts, the US will try to avoid getting eliminated from the tournament. Even a win isn't a guarantee of advancing, as a Panama win over Bolivia would leave 3 teams with 6 points. Uruguay will be confident of advancing no matter their result as they sit on a +7 goal difference. The US is at +1 and Panama at -1. Panama could make up that goal difference against a Bolivia team that has allowed 7 goals against.
Advancing isn't the only thing on the line for the US. Manager Gregg Berhalter's job is likely on the line too. Seeing that Uruguay can be secure with even a small loss, I believe the US gets what they need, but it's not been a stellar performance so far from the Americans.
GROUP D
1. Colombia 6 pts.
2. Brazil 4
3. Costa Rica 1
4. Paraguay 0
(Tuesday, June 25th)
9:00pm ET - Brazil vs Colombia
9:00pm ET - Costa Rica vs Paraguay
-The giants of soccer - Brazil - have finally woken up. From a slow start in their World Cup 2026 qualifying to preparation matches and even their opening Copa America match, many questions were being asked about Brazil. A team with an incredible amount of talent may have had their breakout game vs Paraguay. A win against Colombia would confirm what we all suspected - Brazil is a candidate to lift the trophy when it's all said and done.
- With Paraguay officially eliminated and Costa Rica needing a win, a Brazil loss, and to make up a current 6-goal differential with Brazil, this match is more of a farewell to their fans than anything else.
As we enter the final Group Stage matches, we have a couple of scenarios that could determine a lot for the 3 CONCACAF hosts. There is a scenario where all 3 hosts are eliminated from the tournament over the next 4 days. I certainly hope not, but it is a possibility. Not having the US, Mexico, or Canada in the quarterfinals would be a huge blow for CONCACAF.
On the other hand, there's also a good chance all 3 hosts reach the quarterfinals. That would be a good sign as World Cup 2026 approaches that CONCACAF continues to close the gap with the powerful CONMEBOL Confederation.
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