These Factors Hurt Courtland Sutton's Fantasy Value
Courtland Sutton played 14 games at a 75% snap share or more. A concussion kept him out of one full game and under a 50% snap share in the other two. From Weeks 1 - 15, Sutton was WR19 on the season in half-ppr formats. This was mainly due to his 10 touchdowns in that span (3rd most in that period). Before 2023, Sutton has never had more than 6 touchdowns.
Sutton was already unlikely to repeat his double-digit touchdown performance this year, but that went from unlikely to near impossible given the status of the Broncos quarterback room. Denver drafted Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick of the draft this year. Nix started 61 games in college, surpassing the NCAA record for a quarterback by 8. In 2023, there were 124 quarterbacks in the FBS with at least 200 pass attempts, and Nix led them all by 4.1%.
He will fit in well with Sean Payton’s quick-hitting offense, but it will take some time for Nix to adjust. 38% of Sutton’s fantasy points came off of receptions that were 20+ air yards. Nix can make all the throws on the field but has an average NFL arm. At the University of Oregon in 2023, Nix’s average depth of target was just 6.9 yards, 119th of 124 qualifying quarterbacks. In 2022, he was 105th of 121. Sutton’s aDOT was 13.0 yards and has never dipped below 12.3 yards.
Nix likes to go to his first or second read and get rid of the ball quickly. Sutton has had more success on intermediate to deep routes in the past but would need to see more volume within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage to have a shot of cracking WR24 this season in fantasy.
There is a chance of Sutton stepping into that role, given the other talent around him. Marvin Mims Jr. was selected in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft last year and ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash. Mims only played 38% of snaps last year but was another downfield threat for them when on the field. 55.4% of Mims fantasy points came from receptions that were 20+ air yards. Sutton’s ADP is currently 9.09 overall and WR47. 9th-round players carry little risk, but other players in the same tier offer more upside.
Our consensus projections for Sutton in the 2024 season would be: 62 receptions, 754 yards, and 5 touchdowns through the air.
Read More NFL News From Stadium Rant Here: NFL News
EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNTS:
Order your favorite whiskey or spirit for the big game right to your doorstep and use code STADIUMRANT10 for a 10% discount at Caskers
Use code STADIUMRANT20 for a 20% discount at Bulletproof Coffee, SwingJuice and Performix.
If you love to shotgun beers, use code STADIUMRANT10 at Wild Man Drinking Company.
MORE FROM STADIUM RANT:
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to our newsletter here. Check out Stadium Rant Original shows on our Youtube channel and subscribe! Give our socials Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok a follow for more great content!
Comments