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Davante Adams As A Top Fantasy Asset At An End?

Davante Adams's worst fantasy finish last year, in a season in which he had played at least 15 games since 2015, was WR11. Although Adams will play about half of this season at age 32, his success has never been based on his speed and acceleration. Adams is still one of the best if not the best, route runners in the game and can lose a step or two without losing much production.


He is on a team that threw the ball to the Wide Receiver position on 67.6% of their team targets last year (4th). Adams commanded nearly half of those targets with a target share of 33.1%, ranking second among Wide Receivers. Unfortunately, that is a big slice of a small pie, as the Raiders only threw the ball 557 times last season (T-10th lowest). That is unlikely to change with how the roster has been constructed.


The Raiders wound up drafting TE Brock Bowers and G Jackson Powers-Johnson (JPJ) in this year's draft. JPJ was PFF’s number-one ranked Guard in this year’s draft class but played Center for the Oregon Ducks, where he received PFF’s highest run-blocking grade of any Center in college (min 200 black snaps). The Raiders' off-season moves support Head Coach Antonio Pierce’s ideology of winning games through a good defense and a strong run game. This is further supported by the Raiders not making any big splashes for a Quarterback.


They decided not to move up to get one of the top six Quarterbacks in the draft, who were all picked in the top 12 picks of this year's draft. They also did not acquire a big name through Free Agency. They brought in perennial backup quarterback Gardner Misnhew on a two-year, 25-million-dollar contract with $15 million guaranteed.


Minshew had shown the ability to support the top 15 Wide Receivers as recently as last year in Indianapolis with Michael Pittman Jr. when the Colts threw the ball just 17 times more than the Raiders. Something that will significantly help Adams stay a WR1 in 2024 is his Red Zone target share. Adams tied for the league high in Red Zone targets with 27.


That accounted for 59.3% of the Raiders Red Zone targets. Adams has had at least 8 touchdowns in every season; he’s played at least 14 games since 2016 and has had as many as 14 in a season with the Raiders.


With both rookie TE Brock Bowers and sophomore TE Michael Mayer on the roster, the Raiders will likely run more 12 personnel sets this season. However, Adams will remain the focal point of the passing game. Minshew hyper-targets his top Wide Receiver and throws to the Wide Receiver position often. Adams will be a value if his ADP of 14th overall and WR9 off the board stays put come redraft season.


Our consensus projections for Adams in the 2024 season would be: 100 receptions, 1107 yards, 9 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.


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