The Key To DeVonta Smith's Fantasy Success In 2024
DeVonta Smith heads into this season after back-to-back seasons of finishing at least WR20 or better. He finished as WR20 last season while playing just 16 games and as WR10 in 2022, a season in which he played all 17 games. His lower finish in 2023 could be attributed to his inconsistency, as he had 5 games where he finished as a WR12 or better but also had 6 games where he finished as a WR40 or worse.
Smith looks to get back to WR1 numbers with the aid of new Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers last season and for the Cowboys from 2019 - 2022. In every year where Moore's starting Quarterback has played at least 14 games, his offense has finished in the top 2 in passing yards and top 5 in passing touchdowns.
Dak Prescott saw his Yards Per Attempt (YPA) increase from 7.4 from 2016- 2018 without Kellen Moore to 7.9 from 2019 - 2022 with Kellen Moore. Prescott's Average Depth of Target (aDOT) also increased by 0.5 yards with Moore as his Offensive Coordinator. Justin Herbert did see his aDOT rise from an average of 7.6 yards in his first three seasons to 8.2 yards with Moore as OC.
Still, he did not see his average YPA increase last season, but that can be attributed to Mike Williams missing nearly the entire year, Keenan Allen missing seven games, and Austin Ekeler playing most of the year at less than 100% health. Moore's offenses have consistently finished in the top half of the league regarding the percentage of their team's targets going to the Wide Receiver position.
These numbers bode well for DeVonta Smith this year. Smith should see his targets increase from last year and more usage downfield this season under Moore. Smith finished between 16th and 18th for targets, receptions, and yards of 20+ yards last year. The Eagles haven't significantly added to the offense since last season. They added Parris Campbell through free agency and rookie Wide Receivers Ainias Smith and Johnny Wilson through the draft.
However, none of these Wide Receivers should worry fantasy managers looking to draft DeVonta Smith. The two players that could take away opportunities from DeVonta Smith are TE Dallas Goedert and incoming RB Saquon Barkley. However, in the last two seasons, Moore's offense has targeted the Running Back position at the 7th lowest rate in the league.
This may go up with a stud like Saquon Barkley to work with, but it is unlikely to jump into the league's top half. The Eagles have shown that they prioritize their young Wide Receivers as they gave both Smith and AJ Brown an extension that will keep them in Philadelphia along with Jalen Hurts through at least 2028. Listen to the Eagles' actions and feel confident in grabbing one of the best WR2s on their team in DeVonta Smith.
Our consensus projections for Smith in the 2024 season would be: 87 receptions, 1139 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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