DJ Moore: A Boom-Bust Fantasy Option In 2024
DJ Moore (DJM) finished last season with career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but he returns to a very different Chicago Bears roster this year. The Bears selected Caleb Williams with the first pick of the NFL Draft this year, and he should be the best Quarterback Moore has played with so far in his career.
However, the Bears also drafted Rome Odunze with the 9th pick in the draft and traded a 4th-round pick for veteran WR Keenan Allen. Moore is still the WR1 on this team, but he will face competition from better Wide Receivers than he has in his career. The thing that will separate DJ Moore from the rest of these incoming Wide Receivers is his ability to create after the catch. DJM averaged 5.7 yards after the catch per reception which ranked 9th of 49 Wide Receivers in the league with a minimum of 80 targets.
Moore averaged 2.31 yards per route run (14th of 49 per PFF) and 2.35 fantasy points per target against man coverage (4th per PlayerProfiler), which also speaks to his efficiency. With two Wide Receivers joining the team who could easily be the WR1 on some NFL rosters, Moore is likely to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, and he already struggled with consistency last year.
DJM was the definition of boom or bust last year, finishing the season with 6 games as a WR1, 0 games as a WR2, and 11 games as a WR3 or worse. So, how did DJ Moore put up career highs last year? On the back of big plays. Moore finished 2nd in receptions (16), 4th in yards (482), and 3rd in touchdowns (5) from 20+ yard receptions. Moore did this with the Bears having the 5th fewest pass attempts in the league last year.
So even if DJ Moore’s target share does decrease, there is a chance he will be somewhere close to the same volume he had last season. His ability to win you a week will still be there, but the volatility week-to-week will frustrate managers throughout the season. Proceed with caution.
Our consensus projections for Moore in the 2024 season would be: 86 receptions, 1223 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air and 2 carries for 18 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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