Every NBA Team's X-Factor- Western Conference, Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks- Klay Thompson:
After a finals run that ended in a loss to the Celtics, the Mavs were active in the off-season. They signed Naji Marshall, a 3-and-D wing to replace Derrick Jones, traded for Quentin Grimes in a Tim Hardaway Jr. salary dump, and acquired one of the best shooters ever in Klay Thompson.
While Klay had a down year by his standards last year, he was still one of the best shooters in basketball. He averaged 18 points a game last year, and shot 39% from three ,on a Warriors team that had an up-and-down season. Thompson and his teammates will benefit from playing alongside elite shot creators Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The biggest knock on Klay is that he isn’t the defender he once was.
Teams will be reluctant to double team Luka and Kyrie, with Klay being a huge upgrade over Derrick Jones Jr and Josh Green from last season. The gravity of Thompson’s presence will make life easier for the Mavericks top two stars. In a loaded western conference, a run to the finals again will be tough, even with the team’s upgraded roster. The Mavs may struggle defensively, but their offense should be top 5, and make up for any defensive questions. A lineup of Doncic, Irving, Thompson, P.J. Washington, and Dereck Lively II will be elite offensively due to the spacing. Klay will unlock the Mavs offense at a level they have not reached with Luka yet.
Houston Rockets- Jalen Green:
The Rockets are a hard team to figure out, as they are truly ten deep, but they don't have a difference-maker at the moment. Of all the players on the roster, Jalen Green easily has the highest ceiling, but he has not been consistent on both ends of the floor.
Green is an uber-athletic guard who can jump out of the gym, but he settles for too many tough shots and struggles defensively. Green averaged 20 points a game last season, but he averaged just 3.5 assists and shot a career-worst 32.2% from three. He was routinely pulled out of the game last season, due to his shot selection and defense, and has become a polarizing player to many. He is entering a contract season, and if wants to be a part of the Rockets future, he needs to improve this season and play the way he did towards the end of last year.
Green had an 18-game stretch to end 2023-24, where he averaged 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists a game, and shot 37% shooting from three. Those are great numbers, and it shows what Green is capable of, but he needs to put it all together. The Rockets are full of intriguing young pieces, with Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason. Green has the highest upside of any of them though. The Rockets need to know if he is going to be a part of their future or not, and he has this season to prove it.
Green has all the tools to become an elite offensive player in this league, and a star, but he needs to show it on a consistent level. He is the player that can take the Rockets to another level, and he has to show that this year, if he wants to stay in Houston and be their franchise star.
Memphis Grizzlies- Zach Edey:
It's not often that a rookie can be a contending team's X-factor but Edey brings a lot of things to the table that can help open up the Grizzlies offense and defense.
Two seasons ago, Jaren Jackson Jr. was the defensive player of the year, playing next to Steven Adams. Last season, Jackson was not the same defender with Adams injured. Now with Zach Edey on the roster, Jackson Jr. can return to his natural position of power forward, and play the roamer role on defense. In that role, Jackson can help off his man and block shots. He can also be a help defender for Edey, who is a slower-footed player. Allowing Jackson to play his natural role on defense is one reason why Edey is an X-factor, but Edey’s offensive game is just as important.
The former Purdue center is a 7'4 monster who can put just about anyone under the basket, but more importantly, Edey is elite at setting screens. Ja Morant is one of the quickest players in the league, and Edey will be able to spring him lose on offense with monster screens. Morant with a running start to the basket is a scary sight for defenders. Edey’s screen-setting will also open up the offense by creating space for other players. He will also improve the Grizzlies rebounding, as they desperately lacked a strong rebounder without Steven Adams.
Edey will get played off the floor at times, due to his size and lack of quickness, but his presence will be felt, and he’s a perfect fit for the Grizzlies on both ends of the court. Ja, Jaren, and Desmond Bane are an elite trio, but Edey will help all of them elevate their games in different ways this year.
New Orleans Pelicans- Trey Murphy III:
The Pelicans are a weird team. They are full of talent, but they don't have a starting center on the roster, and almost nothing makes sense on this team. The one thing that does make sense, is Trey Murphy is an awesome player, and deserves a bigger role.
Murphy is a long, athletic, 3-and-D wing, who can both jump and shoot out the gym. He is a high-volume three-point shooter, who shoots with ease from deep, due to the ridiculous arc on his jump shot. He is projected to come off the bench as of right now, but he shouldn't for the entire season. The Pelicans projected starting lineup is Dejounte Murray, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson. Jones is the best defender in that lineup, but he can't guard centers and power forwards due to his frame. Murphy is tall and lanky as well, but he is bigger than Jones, which allows him to guard up to an extent. He is not going to be able to guard centers, but he can handle power forwards, and can provide help defense on centers. He also opens up the floor on offense.
The Pelicans expected starting lineup is not full of knockdown shooting. Murray and Ingram are solid shooters, but they prefer to shoot the mid-range. McCollum can shoot, but he plays best on-ball. Jones is good, but doesn't shoot a high volume, and Zion doesn't shoot threes at all. The Pelicans offense could have some issues, despite all of the talent, but inserting Murphy into the lineup will open up the floor. McCollum makes the most sense to come off the bench, of all the starters. Regardless of who Murphy replaces, he needs to start, for both offensive and defensive purposes.
San Antonio Spurs- Stephon Castle:
The Spurs are in a developmental phase right now, while they wait for Victor Wembenyama to fully emerge. Wemby is the future of the league and a unique talent, but the Spurs need more than just him, and Stephon Castle has the chance to be an elite 2-way player.
Castle is a 6'5 combo guard, who brings elite play on the defensive end of the ball along with timely plays on offense. He is a Swiss army knife offensively, as he can run the offense if needed, but he can play off the ball as well. His three-point shot is what gave scouts concerns in college, as he shot just 27% from deep at UConn. The percentage isn't good, but his mechanics are strong, and he had stretches last year where he knocked down the three-ball with consistency. His upside on offense is intriguing, but he is already an elite defender who can guard 1-3.
Castle is tall, long, and athletic, and all of that allows him to cause problems on defense. Last year at UConn, he would guard the opposing team's best guard/wing on a nightly basis, and every night, the opposing player would struggle. Castle is very similar to Jrue Holiday, as he picks up from full-court, and uses his frame to bother the ball handler. Jrue is one of the league's best on-ball defenders due to his strength and quickness, and Castle is very similar in those aspects. Castle has the potential to be an all-defensive player, and it would be shocking if he doesn't wind up being one.
In a year that is being used for development, Castle should play a lot, and he should be able to work on the aspects of his game that he needs to improve. He and Wemby alone could lead the Spurs to a top-five defense, but if Castle can improve offensively, the Spurs may have a star on their hands. He is the X-factor, because his development is the most important, outside of Wembys.
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