Geno Smith Is Primed For A Breakout Year With The Seahawks
Geno Smith is a good football player. Let’s just get that out of the way here at the top.
Some people have seemingly held on to their prior opinion of him from his time with the New York Jets, while other people blame him for the Seahawks’ offensive struggles. None of that is true.
Geno Smith is a good quarterback who can lead the Seattle Seahawks to an NFC West title and a playoff run.
Geno Smith Is Good, I Can Prove It
Since taking over the starting quarterback job for the Seattle Seahawks in 2022, Geno Smith ranks fourth in the NFL in completion percentage and first in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
CPOE is a metric that measures how much higher or lower a quarterback's completion percentage is based on the types of throws they are making. For example, if you are attempting three-yard swing passes with no defenders around, a QB is expected to hit that more times than not, however if you are attempting a 25-yard out route with a defender all over the receiver the expectation goes down. Geno Smith is completing those difficult passes.
Smith also ranks 12th in the NFL in expected points added + CPOE, right behind Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. According to Opta Stats, Smith has a well-thrown ball 83.2 percent of the time, ranking third in the NFL among full-time starters last year.
That is a lot of raw stats and numbers, but you have to dive into that when discussing Geno Smith. This dude puts the ball in tight windows, has an aggressive mindset, and sets up his receivers to succeed (while throwing an occasional bad interception).
At times, he looks terrible and throws bad picks. Part of the issue is his aggression; he checks the ball down just 11.3 percent of the time. The lack of a solid offensive line is a larger reason for his struggles.
Offensive Line Woes For The Seahawks
ESPN Analytics's 2023 pass block win rate stat shows that the Seahawks offensive line ranked 25th in the NFL.
The line's interior specifically allowed 12 sacks and 86 pressures in 2023, an average of five pressures per game and 0.7 sacks per game, just from the interior of the offensive line! Charles Cross, the second-year left tackle, and Abe Lucas, the second-year right tackle, both missed time in 2023 and had a 71.1 Pro Football Focus grade and a 56.8 PFF grade, respectively.
Ryan Grubb To The Rescue
That was a lot of talk. Hopefully, the point got across. When given time and adequate protection, Geno Smith has the capability of being a top-10 quarterback. The issues for Smith are outside of his control… mostly.
The X factor in how Smith will take his game to the next level is Ryan Grubb. Grubb is an innovative offensive mind who is moving from the University of Washington to the Seahawks.
In 2023, with the Huskies and quarterback Michale Penix Jr., Grubb orchestrated an offense that ranked eighth in the nation in expected points added per play (EPA) and 13th in expected points added per dropback.
Grubb helped push Penix into the thick of the Heisman race as well. Penix had a 0.400 EPA per attempt in 2023, while his average depth-of-target was 10.389 yards. The icing on top of all of this? Penix led the nation in air yards with 2,186.
The offense last season catered to Michael Penix's strengths, including deep balls to the outside of the numbers, and leaned into the aggression of the experienced signal caller. There is no reason to believe that won’t be the same in 2024 with Smith.
Get Ready, Here Comes Geno Smith
With D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the second year, Smith has the weapons at the receiver position to lead Seattle to an NFC West title. His ability to push the ball downfield perfectly complements the skill sets of Metcalf and Lockett, and having Smith-Njiba as the third option gives the offense every facet it needs.
Currently at 10-1 to win the NFL MVP award, Smith may be worth a sprinkle. He is poised to take a leap forward under Ryan Grubb.
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