Giants-Seahawks Betting Preview: Will It Lead Them To A Reliable (7-1) Victory?
Can the Brian Daboll-coached Giants keep the magic against an upstart Seahawks team getting incredible quarterback play from Smith? Or will the Seahawks tally yet another impressive victory with a win over New York? The game is scheduled to kick off Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET from Lumen Field.
The Giants will look to continue their march as one of the league’s biggest surprises when they take their four-game winning streak into Seattle for a matinee on Sunday, Oct. 30th. Possibly the two biggest surprises of the 2022 NFL season go head-to-head when Daniel Jones and the New York Giants (6-1) travel to Seattle for a road matchup against Geno Smith’s Seahawks (4-3).
Giants at Seahawks odds, money-line & over/under
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
This bet lost a little value once it moved onto the key number of 3 after reopening Seahawks -2.5 earlier this week with the sharp money betting Seattle early. It’s hard to keep fading the Giants, who are 5-0 straight up as underdogs this season, but it’s important to stay true to process with betting numbers and not teams.
Let’s make some basic line comparisons here. Last week the Jags were 3-point favorites at home against the Giants and this week the Seahawks are priced the same. So that means the Jags and Seahawks would be a pick ’em on a neutral field, which feels like a stretch. Most oddsmakers said this week would make Seattle a slight favorite in that situation, which means even at -3.5, there’s still some value on the Seahawks this week.
As for the matchup, the Seahawks’ defense also presents some hidden value we might be overlooking. Public sentiment is still relatively low on their stop unit. However, the numbers say otherwise. Seattle has the 4th-highest EPA/play over the last two weeks, up from 31st in Weeks 1-5. DC Clint Hurtt deserves most of the credit. Hurtt is in his first year calling plays after serving as the DL coach under former DC Ken Norton Jr., who was fired in the offseason.
Seattle’s secondary has been exceptionally strong, holding Justin Herbert to 5.7 YPA last week, his 2nd-lowest mark of the season. The Seahawks also completely shut down Kyler Murray, allowing just 9 points to the Cardinals, who dropped 42 on the Saints just four days later. That’s two very different game plans executed successfully against two very different styles of quarterback play: Herbert being a pocket passer and Murray posing a threat to run.
On the other side, I expect the dam to break at some point for the Giants — who are just 24th in EPA/play on defense and not ranked any higher than 23rd in any win rate category. They especially struggle against the run, which is great news for rookie Kenneth Walker. It’s also good news for Geno Smith, who looked slightly more human last week but is still leading the NFL in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) and has the highest success rate of any QB not named Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.
Money-line: Seahawks (-165); Giants (+143)
Giants Gridiron Affiliate Chill N Reel
Over/under: 44.5
The injury report is looking grim for the Giants on offense. They will likely be without 2 starting offensive linemen, as RT Evan Neal (knee) and LG Ben Bredeson (knee) are both considered “week-to-week” by HC Brian Daboll. TE Daniel Bellinger is also out with an eye injury, which is significant because he is currently the 3rd-leading receiver on the Giants roster with 16 catches this season.
Kenny Golladay also missed practice time this week, and their status is highly questionable for Sunday. The cupboard is almost completely bare for QB Daniel Jones, who is having an admirably efficient season (9th EPA+CPOE) despite ranking just 34th out of 36 qualifiers in air yards. WR Wandale Robinson has looked better each week, and RB Saquon Barkley continues to be the heart and soul of the offense. Still, eventually, I expect the offensive production to drop off a cliff considering the talent — or lack thereof — Daboll and OC Mike Kafka have to work with.
Meanwhile, rookie RB Kenneth Walker has emerged, and the Seahawk’s offense has become more reliant on the running game. That trend should continue again this week, with WR DK Metcalf questionable. All of the Giants’ talent on defense is upfront, with Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams grading out exceptionally well and rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux improving each week. Eventually, it’s fair to expect some regression from QB Geno Smith, but I also still expect the Seattle offense to have some success on the ground this week.
Injury Report: injury info for Giants vs. Seahawks
Prediction
Lex Of It: New York Giants 24 – 20 Seattle Seahawks
The Giants have indeed been winning, but they haven’t been winning comfortably. They had to come from behind to edge the Ravens 2 weeks ago before a 4th-quarter comeback against the Jaguars saw them move to 6-1. Even in that game, they had to hold Christian Kirk at the 1-yard line late in the game in order to secure the win. Geno Smith and the Seahawks have been defying expectations, and with rookie running back Kenneth Walker beginning to blow up, it will be interesting to see which of these teams secures the victory and whether it will be as close as the spread suggests.
Throwin' it back for this one 😎 Who wants an Xavier McKinney autographed classic mini helmet?! — New York Giants (@Giants) October 28, 2022