Gritty Gambler’s Guide: Week 15 Picks, Saturday Special & A Proper Parlay
It looks like the first installment of the Gritty Gambler’s Guide got off to an exciting start. While I stuck out on the five straight bets, I hit the weekly parlay and ended up in the green for this card. Let’s hope I have a better thumb on this week’s market than last.
NFL Picks
There are certainly some great matchups this week, and everything is getting more critical for the teams in the playoff hunt. Some teams can truly separate here, and others might falter at the finish line, but let’s see if we can make it profitable on either side.
Niners (-4) TNF!!!
The Niners are starting to click, even without Deebo. They just spanked Brady’s Bucs, and the Seahawks are coming off of a loss to Sam Darnold’s Panthers squad. Much like the Eagles, this team in the bay is a wagon. Kenneth Walker is questionable, but will they lean on him as much, even if he is in the lineup?
The Seahawks are 3-4 in outdoor games, and the Niners are 8-3 outdoors. Both teams have top-10 offenses, but the Niners have the top-ranked defense, and the Hawks are toting the 30th-ranked defense points-wise. It is a divisional matchup, so I don’t think San Fran blows them out, but they win by a touchdown 28-21
Vikings (-4)
The cardiac kids finally let one up; they were beaten convincingly by a team in their division playing some great ball. In the loss, Justin Jefferson racked up 223 yards and proved he deserves to be called one of the best every game. Indy doesn’t have the secondary to contain him. The Colts have a bottom-ranked offense in the league and one of the worst turnover differentials. The Vikings have played many close games, but I don’t think Matt Ryan will be able to hang in there on the road. Minnesota by seven, 24-17.
Cowboys (-4)
Last week the look-ahead line for this tilt in Jacksonville was Dallas as seven-point favorites. After a very uninspiring win against Houston at home, it’s fallen three points. The Jags are riding a high from a brutal beatdown of a very banged-up Titans defense that is coached very well but has lacked enough talent for years, and it finally caught up to them.
I don’t think either team has changed much in value. The Cowboys are a top-five DVOA defensive team with a DPOY candidate in Michah Parsons. Since Dak has been back, he has the offense third in the league in scoring. Trevor Lawrence is finally starting to round into shape, but the Boys get their 9th out of 12 wins by a touchdown or more, 31-21.
Ravens (+135 ML)
Welp, it’s been two weeks since Deshaun returned to the Browns, and they have yet to score an offensive touchdown. If Lamar were healthy, the Ravens would be the favorite here, but since Huntley is projected to start, they are three-point road dogs. Both teams have been struggling to score, but the Ravens have a much better scoring defense.
This is one of the better teams at this value against a team playing horribly. Mark Andrews breaks out of his slump, and the Ravens get J.K Dobbins even more involved and win by a long Justin Tucker field goal 23-20.
Gritty Gamblers Parlay
Last week we cashed out a decent +890 World Cup parlay this week, we are looking at a few more NFL plays just for a bit higher of a payout.
Leg One: ATL V NOR (o43.5)
Both of these teams have playmakers and back half of the league defenses. This is a light number, even for two sub-par offenses. Desmond Ridder is getting his first start and could add something with his legs. Drake London received a whopping 12 targets last game they played. Coming off the bye is the perfect time to design even more touches around him.
The Saints have been in an interesting pattern with a few low-scoring games, then right when you think they are cooked; the Saints come marching in. The Falcons will probably win this game, but it’s a tough side to play, so just root for the points 27-20.
Leg Two: Steelers (+130 ML)
When T.J. Watt plays, the Steelers are the second-ranked defense in the league, according to DVOA; having him latest a great unit that is always quite disciplined, the combination of the two should be enough to drag Mitch Trubisky to a win against Sam Darnold.
I liked how the Panthers have responded to the firing of Matt “JA” Rhule, but they executed their latest win by controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball all over the Seahawks, which won’t be as easy against the Steelers. This is a rock-fight game Steelers win 18-13.
Leg Three: Chargers (-152 ML)
The Titans are incredibly well-coached, but every year they have suffered some critical injuries on both sides of the ball and have lacked the depth of talent to pull off some of the close game victories they have been accustomed to. Derrick Henry should cause a problem for the Charger’s defense, but that takes more time of possession than Mike Willams or Keenan Allen having a field day on this Titans secondary which is giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Add that to that. Justin Herbert may have finally gotten rid of the yips in big-time spots. The Chargers control this one at home 28-17.
Leg Four: NYG @ WFT (u40.5)
I guess it is back to the well with this play. I was one of many who bet the under in the week 13 matchup, and at the end of the game, we were screaming for the tie! As an American, the worst thing I can imagine is a draw, but I like money more than I hate the third column! Of course, no one wins that game. It’s the ‘Manders & Giants.
Now, they are about to run it back this week, and Saquan has looked less healthy each week. The Giants haven’t been able to stop the run all season, and the Commanders showed us that they are willing to run it 50 times down the throat. The Giants have zero weapons outside Barkley and have been outperforming their talent all season. This game is just another low-scoring slugfest, 20-17
This parlay’s odds are +1270 so a $10 bet here nets you $127. Happy Hunting
Bonus Play!
Since it’s Thursday and I have a TNF play, I will give out an extra play for the Cure Bowl! 25th-ranked UTSA faces off against 24th-ranked Troy in a classic explosive offense versus a dominant defense. UTSA has the 12th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, led by Frank Harris, having a stellar season.
The Troy defense is dominant against the standard dropback passing attack but has struggled to stop mobile QBs getting gashed by LSU and Liberty zone read attacks. UTSA employs a similar system, and currently, Draft Kings has them at -1, which I would play up to -2.5. If it moves to -3, I’d have to lean toward Troy. Best of luck to all you degens out there!
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