Is Bo Nix OVERRATED... Or OVER HATED? | 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profile
By Peter Andrisani (The Mock Draft Guy)
Nothing makes me more happy than a good redemption story. Well, the winning lottery might make me happy, but I digress. But the focal point of today’s prospect profile has a tremendous Redemption story brewing, and that would be Oregon Ducks QB, Bo Nix. Let’s dive into today’s 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profile!
STRENGTHS
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has endured a seemingly endless path to the NFL. The 6’2” 215-pound quarterback was once a highly coveted recruit. But as his time with the Auburn Tigers wore on, Nix developed a reputation as used or damaged goods. But Nix has transformed his playing career since transferring to Eugene. After an impressive 2022 season which saw Nix deliver 43 total touchdowns, Nix has continued his strong play into 2023.
Bo Nix’s strongest attributes are his fluid athleticism and high-end throwing mechanics. It’s impossible to fully appreciate a quarterback’s arm talent without seeing him play live, but Nix appears to drive the ball with high-end velocity. His throwing demeanor shows that he has complete faith in his arm. Nix can throw with varying velocity and trajectory on short and deep passes to hit receivers with well-located throws. Nix can win by throwing to receivers with a pressing, bump-and-run defender. On such throws, he showed high-end flashes of ball placement. Nix proved he could keep the football in play, allowing his receivers to get the ball with back shoulder and over-the-top throws.
Nix has some excellent pocket and spatial awareness. His ability to sense pressure, calmly slide to the quiet area of the pocket, find his hot receiver, and quickly get the ball out accurately make him extremely appealing to scouts. While his arm talent and poise are a big part of why Nix is a high-level prospect, his athleticism is also a big boost. With a lean, muscular frame and good foot speed for the position, Nix can buy time and escape the pocket with twitchy athleticism.
That ability to play on the move outside the pocket is necessary in the modern NFL. Coordinators cannot always make the perfect call. Having a quarterback with playmaking ability to get the play-caller off the hook by manufacturing big improvisational plays with his arm or legs is crucial.
WEAKNESSES
Like every prospect, Nix has some minor parts of his game to improve, such as easily correctable drop-back issues. Like many young quarterbacks, he must also learn to slide to protect the ball and himself. He must clean up his lackadaisical ball security outside the pocket. While Nix mostly shows high-end mechanics and accuracy, there are some inexplicable instances on intermediate throws where the ball simply dies on him. On tape, it does not seem to result from a mechanical error, either. These random moments of erratic accuracy plagued him at Auburn, as well.
Although Nix only threw seven interceptions last season, four were in or near the red zone. A forced pass, a tipped ball, and a few arguably reckless decisions resulted in turnovers that took points off the board. Protecting the ball with the opportunity to come away with points is imperative at the NFL Level. Nix needs to refine his game processing. He can telegraph primary reads, and his hesitancy during receiver breaks can lead to missed opportunities. This also extends to deep routes, where despite having the arm strength, he often hesitates. Improvisation under pressure introduces risk. Nix's tendency to force plays or make impulsive throws increases the chance of turnovers. His in-pocket presence, especially in collapsing situations, can be erratic, leading to rushed decisions.
Finally, Nix does get fed information from the sidelines at times in the pre-snap. So, the question of how much of an NFL offense he can internalize without reliance on external feedback may be a behind-the-scenes barrier that pro teams struggle with. The looming question will be, can Nix make pre-snap adjustments on his own in the NFL?
SCHEME FIT
In terms of a Scheme Fit for Bo Nix, I would like to see him in an offense that utilizes quick passes and timing passes on the sideline. A team that runs predominantly inside the zone in the run game would be ideal as well, as this would lead to RPOs and read-option opportunities for Nix, which would maximize his athletic ability. Any scheme that allows Nix to use his athleticism is ideal.
TEAM FITS
Here are 5 teams that I think can look to draft Bo Nix in the 2024 NFL Draft:
The Atlanta Falcons. This would probably be my top choice for Nix. The Falcons have a great Offensive Line and a great run game. Nix would be an immediate upgrade over Desmond Ridder, especially when it comes to improvisation.
The Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have no long-term answer for the quarterback position on their roster. Geno Smith is fully capable of starting until Nix is ready to take over that potent Seahawks offense.
The New Orleans Saints. The Saints are in a weird position when it comes to the Quarterback position. Drafting Nix would allow them to have a plan post-Derek Carr.
The New England Patriots. The Patriots are in desperate need of a quarterback upgrade. Nix offers an incredible upgrade over Mac Jones, especially from an athleticism standpoint.
Finally, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think Baker has done a great job this season, but if the front office doesn’t see him as a long-term solution, they could be looking for that potential franchise quarterback.
PRO COMPARISON
My Pro Comparison for Bo Nix is Jalen Hurts. Like Hurts, I think Nix would benefit from a system like Philly. The Eagles have a strong running game, and a great offensive line, which opens up easier opportunities for Hurts to throw the football. But, Hurts can also create big plays independently, with his arm strength and overall athletic ability. Nix might not be technically as physically strong as Hurts, but the athleticism is certainly comparable.
DRAFT PROJECTION
Nix will enter the NFL as an older prospect, but his career resurgence is certainly eye-opening and noteworthy. Nix has plenty of arm talent, athleticism, and play-making ability to be a starter at the next level. His Continued growth in decision-making, refinement in accuracy and footwork, and speed of reads are going to be essential for him to touch his potential. I think Bo Nix is a perfect Top 20 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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