Is CJ Stroud Overpriced In Fantasy, Or Can He Level Up?
Stroud may be the hottest name right now in fantasy football after a rookie performance that makes any NFL fan excited to see what the young quarterback is capable of doing. He finished as the QB 11 while still missing 2 games.
Stroud showed that he may have a future of elite arm talent in the NFL, having six games over 300 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, and only five interceptions. He had seven games in which he finished as a QB1 (Top 12 finish) in his rookie year, but he finished in the top 5 in only 2 of those games. His most standout game was week 9, when he threw for 470 yards and 5 TDs, showing that he is already capable of throwing up monster fantasy numbers.
The Texans are also going into the 24-25 season with some loaded weapons (Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and a healthy Tank Dell), which gives the young quarterback just that much more opportunity. Bobby Slokic needs to take a step forward as well if Stroud is going to return on his draft capital; the Texans tried running the ball on early downs too much to start the season; making a switch to that in 2024 could give Stroud the volume he needs to reach the passing output he needs to be a top end fantasy option.
However, the downside of taking Stroud is that he is not the greatest running quarterback and will never give you much more than small scramble runs. So, he essentially has to throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes for him to reach his ceiling each week.
Stroud also has a very high draft price for only having one season to prove himself so far. The long-term value should be there, as he will continue to improve in his young career, but managers should show some caution in redrafts.
Our consensus projections for Stroud in the 2024 season would be: 399 completions, 4990 yards, 34 touchdowns, 10 interceptions through the air, and 31 carries for 148 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.
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