Is The 2nd Overall Pick In The NBA Draft Cursed?
Every NBA team has a draft pick they wish they could take back over their history, whether a superstar was drafted the pick after, or their pick just failed to live up to their potential. In particular, the 2nd overall pick has had quite a surreal number of players not to live up to expectations. There are exceptions, of course, namely Kevin Durant, Isiah Thomas, Jason Kidd, Bill Russell etc. But for such a high pick, the number of below-average players selected is impressive.
The 1966 draft was the first that didn’t feature territorial picks, meaning there was a real 1st overall pick down to 112th (!!) overall. The NBA was still in its very early stages, hence why there were so many picks.
60's, 70's and 80's
From ‘66 to ‘72, the second pick was a blessing, as every selection between then was at least a multi-time all-star, barring Phoenix's Neal Walk, who still averaged 20 and 12 in his prime years. From there through to the infamous 1984 Draft, it was a toss-up. Guys like Isiah Thomas, Terry Cummings, and Darrell Griffith were drafted, as well as Dave Meyers, Phil Ford, and Steve Stivanovich. If you’re wondering who those guys are, exactly. Serviceable enough NBA players but certainly not what you want out of a second-overall pick.
Then we get to ‘84, and we know how this ended up playing out. Hakeem Olajuwon goes first to Houston, Micheal Jordan goes third to Chicago, and right between the two Hall of Famers, Portland select Sam Bowie. Credit to Bowie, he wasn’t a scrub by any means, averaged 15 and 8 in New Jersey after his leg injury that kept him out for the better part of three years.
But if you’re the guy who gets drafted before arguably the greatest player ever, that just isn’t going to cut it. Blame should go to Portland’s front office, but this is the earliest memorable ‘bust’ at 2nd overall for the majority of NBA fans.
Just two years later in the ‘86 Draft, the 2nd overall pick was another memorable one for all the wrong reasons. One of the saddest and most tragic stories in NBA history, is the story of Len Bias. The guy was an absolute star coming out of Maryland and looked to have all the potential in the world at the next level. Just two days after he was drafted by the Boston Celtics, he collapsed and subsequently passed away due to a cocaine overdose, one of the biggest ‘what-if’s’ in sports history.
After two more solid role players, Armen Gilliam and Rik Smits were selected in the years following Bias, ‘89 produced an absolute draft bust legend in Danny Ferry. After some sensational years at Duke, the Clippers drafted him at 2, he was then moved to Cleveland, where he averaged 7 PPG for his career.
90's and 2000's
Gary Payton was a really good pick the next year by Seattle, followed by Kenny Anderson and Alonzo Mourning, who both made All-Star games in their careers. The rest of the 90’s was not too bad, while Jason Kidd was the only guy you’d consider worthy of a 2nd Overall pick, the rest of the selections had at least solid NBA careers, and some made multiple All-Star games.
The downfall started again in the 2000 Draft. Stromile Swift, despite his awesome name, was not an awesome player. He averaged 8.4 PPG over his 9-year career, though to be fair this draft class is historically weak. Tyson Chandler was taken 2nd the next year, and had an excellent NBA career, though to say he should’ve been taken over Pau Gasol would be a lie.
Jay Williams certainly could’ve been a good player if it weren’t for his injuries. The 2nd pick in 2002 averaged over 21 PPG in back-to-back years for Duke, before a motorcycle accident ended his playing career following his rookie season with Chicago.
The 1984 and 2003 NBA Drafts are often compared, primarily because they both featured a
guy who is arguably the GOAT, but also because the 2nd Overall pick was a terrible pick. In a draft that featured LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in the Top 5, Detroit selected Darko Milicic. The pick was ridiculed at the time it happened, and it’s only gotten worse since then, as Milicic averaged a whopping 6 PPG over his 10-year career. Can only imagine what might’ve happened if Detroit, who won the championship in 2004, had drafted one of the multiple Hall of Fame players available to them.
The next two years were marginally better, as college standouts Emeka Okafor and Marvin Williams were selected in ‘04 and ‘05 respectively. Okafor actually won ROTY over Dwight Howard that season, and then progressively managed to get swords until a neck injury in 2013 fully derailed his career. As for Williams, he was a decent role player for Atlanta and then Charlotte later on in his career, but never averaged over 15 PPG, and fell well short of his expectations despite having a long NBA career.
All of a sudden, it seemed the rotten luck of having the 2nd Overall pick had been completely flipped. ‘06 and ‘07 saw two excellent picks by Chicago (who then traded the pick because they’re the Bulls) and Seattle. LaMarcus Aldridge was selected by the Bulls and then instantly traded to Portland, where between there and San Antonio he had an excellent NBA career. Kevin Durant saw this and then decided to completely one-up him, he will finish his career as one of the greatest scores this game has ever seen and certainly as one of the best number 2 picks of all-time.
The Modern Era
But as quickly as they rise, they fall again. After Durant, there were 5 straight years of failure, from both the players and the brains of the GMs who drafted them. Micheal Beasley, Hasheem Thabeet, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, and Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist went five in a row, an unbelievably bad run for number two overall. Thabeet and Williams in particular have
got to sting bad for Memphis and Minnesota respectively, as both drafts featured at least 3 or 4 future Hall of Famers each.
Micheal Beasley averaged 12.4 PPG for his career, none of the other four averaged even nine. While Beasley and even Evan Turner were decent role players for a while in the league, once again, they heavily failed to live up to the potential their draft pick indicated they had.
From 2013 to 2017, it was predominantly good picks at 2nd overall. Victor Oladipo, despite fighting injuries his whole career, was one of the best shooting guards in the league at his best. Jabari Parker was awesome on the Bucks as a 21-year-old averaging 20 PPG, before he tore his ACL in September of 2017. D’Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram have both been All-Stars since being moved from the Lakers and Lonzo Ball was flourishing in Chicago before yet another injury, which had kept him out for two full seasons at this point.
From there, it’s probably a bit early to decide whether or not these guys were worthy of the 2nd overall pick. That being said, Marvin Bagley and James Wiseman aren’t looking promising at this point. The Kings selected Bagley after his monster season at Duke, putting up 21 and 11 a game in college, he will be remembered as the guy drafted before Luka Doncic if he doesn’t manage to turn his career around, he’s another guy who’s been plagued by injury but also was just a bad pick in hindsight by Sacramento.
Despite those two questionable picks, guys like Ja Morant, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Green look to be excellent players in time at this stage in their careers despite it being very early.
Now yes, every draft pick has their fair share of disappointments, but what is it that separates the Number 2 pick and makes it really ‘cursed’?
Since 1974, 50 YEARS AGO, the 2nd pick in the NBA Draft has generated a total of 1 MVP, the least of any top 5 pick. 2nd Overall is also last out of the top 5 in Championships won, and second-to-last in All-NBA and All-Star team selections.
Considering this, the amount of ‘busts’, and the number of injury-plagued careers that have and are still being affected by the 2nd pick ‘curse’, it’s safe to say that the 2nd Overall Pick is the most underachieving pick in NBA History.
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