Jakobi Meyers' Fantasy Value Is Clouded Because Of This
Last year, Jakobi Meyers' ADP was 14.08 overall and WR59 off the board. Meyers went on to catch 71 of his 106 targets for 807 yards and 8 touchdowns, which was suitable for WR24 in half-PPR formats. His ADP has not moved up much since last year. His current ADP heading into 2024 is 11.07 overall and WR53. Meyers may not be the hottest name in fantasy, but he is a consistent contributor when a reliable quarterback throws him the ball.
Jakobi Meyers and Jimmy Garappolo only played 4 full games together, but Meyers had two WR1 finishes in those games. Meyers was on a 17-game pace for 102 receptions, 1,105 yards, and 13 touchdowns with Garappolo, which would have made Meyers the WR6 last year. Obviously, these numbers are based on a small sample size, but Meyers can get the job done if there is a competent quarterback under center.
That may be why his ADP has not risen much this year. The Raiders brought in Gardner Minshew this off-season to compete with Aidan O'Connell for the starting QB role. There have been no reports from Raiders personnel stating one has the upper hand over the other, but neither are superb options for Meyers' production. Last year, Meyers and O'Connell played 10 full games together.
Meyers was on a 17-game pace in those games for 60 receptions, 741 yards, and 5 touchdowns. That would've made him WR42 on the year. That is a massive difference from his production with Garappolo. Meyers' snap share is safe, considering the Raiders are poised to run a lot of 12 personnel this year and do not have any threatening Wide Receivers to surpass Meyers. However, the Raiders did draft TE Brock Bowers out of Georgia this year with the 13th overall pick in the draft.
Bowers is an athletic freak and will likely run some routes from the slot. This could slightly eat into Meyers' production, but his role changed after he signed with the Raiders. In New England, Meyers ran at least 60% of his routes from the slot in all four seasons. In Meyers' first year in Las Vegas, he ran just 28% of his routes from the slot.
Meyers' role should be safe and should be able to provide you with a stable floor if Gardner Minshew wins the job. If O'Connell wins the job and still can't progress past his first read in Davante Adams, Meyers may be in trouble this season.
Our consensus projections for Meyers in the 2024 season would be: 61 receptions, 718 yards, 5 touchdowns through the air and 3 carries for 34 yards and 1 rushing touchdown.
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