How Jayden Reed's Teammates Could Effect His Fantasy Value
The Green Bay Packers have one of the most ambiguous Wide Receiver rooms in the NFL this year. They have five young, talented wide receivers on their roster, and at least four of them, if not all five, will make an impact this year. Those receivers are Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton. Watson injured his hamstring in preseason, and it was reaggravated later in the season.
It cost him 8 games on the season. In 7 of those 8 games Reed played without Watson, Reed was on a 17-game pace to catch 80 receptions of his 121 targets for 1,039 yards and 12 touchdowns. That would've given him 215.9 points in half-PPR and a WR11 finish in 2023. In the 9 games Reed played with Watson, he was on a 17-game pace to catch 59 receptions of his 83 targets for 689 yards and 6 touchdowns.
That would have given him 134.4 points and WR42 last year. Reed averaged a 58% snap share in those games compared to Watson's 76.9%. Watson was on a 17-game pace to finish with 25.8 more points than Reed in that span and would have outpaced Reed in targets, yards, and touchdowns. Doubs was the only WR not impacted much by Watson's return. Doubs's 17-game pace without Watson put him on track for 162.9 points, and with Watson, it would have been 151 points.
Doubs snap share actually went up with Watson on the field as well going from 78% to 82.2%. Wicks was by far the most impacted by Watson's presence. Wicks had a snap share of 63% without Watson compared to 25.5% with Watson. Wicks and Watson are both athletic, big-bodied wide receivers, so it does make sense that he would be the most impacted by a healthy Christian Watson. His 17-game pace without Watson was 157.4 points vs 79.4 points without Watson.
Melton did not play a snap until Week 15, so he was unaffected by Watson last season. Reed will look to build on an efficient rookie year and carve out a role for himself. Last season, Reed was 21st in Yards Per Route Run with 2.05 yards. This put him ahead of many big names, such as DK Metcalf, Ja'Marr Chase, and Davante Adams, just to name a few.
Right now, Reed is the first of the Packers' wide receivers to be drafted in redraft leagues. His ADP is currently 6.11 overall, and WR34 is off the board. Watson doesn't come off the board until 8.10 overall, which is currently WR43. Reed is a risky pick, given the ambiguity of the wide receiver room, making this an important team to watch during training camp. If you select the correct wide receiver, you could find one of the best values in the redraft this year.
Our consensus projections for Reed in the 2024 season are 71 receptions, 884 yards, 7 touchdowns through the air, 15 carries for 137 yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns.
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