Josh Jacobs' New Scenery Might Hurt Him For Fantasy
Josh Jacobs has a new home for the first time in his career; He signed a 4-year, 48 million, 48-million-dollar deal with Green Bay as they elected to let Aaron Jones go. Jacobs has had an up-and-down career so far, with finishes as RB18, RB8, RB14, RB3, and RB27 in half PPR. Jacobs is 26 years old and well he is going into a better situation in Green Bay Matt LaFluer has been a large supporter of a timeshare in the backfield.
The Packers also drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL draft. LaFleur has been saying good things about Lloyd and noted they wanted to get him to pass down work. Even when it was Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion, there was a split. Jones was clearly the superior player, but they still rotated him with Dillion. Jacobs may be the better player with a bigger contract, but Lloyd is still going to eat into his workload.
Jacobs' yards per touch hit its height in 2022 at 5.2, then plummeted back down to 4.1 last season with over 120 fewer touches. Even with it being one of Jacobs worst efficiency seasons he still produced 5 top 10 finishes in 13 games despite only running for over 100 yards in 2 of the 13 games.
His ADP is the 58th player on the board in the Superflex dynasty. This seems a bit high, considering his four-year deal only has two years of guarantees. In redraft leagues, he is a much better value at that price. One QB leagues have him as the 26th player off the board, which still seems a bit high due to the range of outcomes.
Our consensus projections for Jacobs in the 2024 season are 262 carries for 1,033 yards and 9 touchdowns. In the receiving game, his consensus projection is 42 receptions for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns.
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